Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Bad Waltersdorf, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 17 September 2025, Wednesday


	Pablo Carreno-Busta		Lukas Neumayer

	1	2
	1.57	2.25	Watch
	1.57	2.25
	1.62	2.17	Watch
	1.56	2.26	Watch
			Watch
	1.63	2.19	Watch
	1.57	2.26
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↑ (1.57)	2.23 ↓ (2.35)

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pablo Carreno-Busta
58.4%

Lukas Neumayer
41.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60%

40%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.5%

39.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pablo Carreno-Busta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Lukas Neumayer has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lukas Neumayer than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.6%	0%	82.4%

Pablo Carreno Busta - Lukas Neumayer Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Carreno Busta will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). Neumayer will win (votes: 14 - 82.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Neumayer: 64.3% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Carreno Busta (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Neumayer (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 123. Neumayer is ranked ATP: 173.

In recent matches, Carreno Busta has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Neumayer's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Neumayer may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pablo Carreno-Busta
Davis Cup World Group
14.09.25	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Elmer Moller	2:0 ✺
13.09.25	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
04.09.25	Dusan Lajovic - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:1 ✺
03.09.25	Javier Barranco Cosano - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
02.09.25	Daniel Rincon - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLLWW
- Lukas Neumayer
Davis Cup World Group
13.09.25	Fabian Marozsan - Lukas Neumayer	Canceled ✺
ATP Challenger
02.09.25	Oleg Prihodko - Lukas Neumayer	2:1 ✺
ATP US Open
19.08.25	Lukas Neumayer - Ignacio Buse	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
14.08.25	Stefano Travaglia - Lukas Neumayer	2:0 ✺
13.08.25	Carlos Sanchez Jover - Lukas Neumayer	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 ?LLLW

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