Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/64-finals

Date: 23 April 2026, Thursday


	Pablo Carreno-Busta		Marton Fucsovics

	1	2
	1.91	1.91	Watch
			Watch
	1.87	1.94	Watch
	1.91	1.99
	1.88	1.92	Watch
	1.8	2	Watch
	1.89	1.99	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↑ (1.75)	1.96 ↓ (2.18)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pablo Carreno-Busta
51.1%

Marton Fucsovics
48.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.5%

44.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.4%

54.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pablo Carreno-Busta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Marton Fucsovics has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pablo Carreno-Busta that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marton Fucsovics than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Marton Fucsovics could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.2%	0%	15.8%

Pablo Carreno Busta - Marton Fucsovics Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Carreno Busta (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Pablo Carreno-Busta will win (16 of 19 users predict this - 84.21%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.81% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 94. Fucsovics is ranked ATP: 54.

Carreno Busta has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Fucsovics is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Carreno Busta won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Barcelona
11.04.26	Pedro Martinez Portero - Pablo Carreno-Busta	Carreno-Busta P. Retired ✺
ATP Challenger
29.03.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Pablo Llamas Ruiz	0:2 ✺
28.03.26	Sebastian Ofner - Pablo Carreno-Busta	1:2 ✺
27.03.26	Pedro Martinez Portero - Pablo Carreno-Busta	1:2 ✺
26.03.26	Alejo Sanchez Quilez - Pablo Carreno-Busta	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 ?LWWW
- Marton Fucsovics
ATP Munich
13.04.26	Flavio Cobolli - Marton Fucsovics	Canceled ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
05.04.26	Marton Fucsovics - Alejandro Tabilo	0:2 ✺
ATP Miami
21.03.26	Felix Aliassime-Auger - Marton Fucsovics	2:0 ✺
20.03.26	Christopher OConnell - Marton Fucsovics	0:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
08.03.26	Marton Fucsovics - Arthur Fils	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 ?LLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Dubai
16.03.21	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Marton Fucsovics	1:2

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