Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Murcia, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 18 March 2026, Wednesday


	Pablo Llamas Ruiz		Jan Choinski

	1	2
	1.4	2.75	Watch
	1.47	2.45
	1.51	2.7
	1.43	2.61	Watch
	1.53	2.38
	1.53	2.34	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↓ (1.56)	2.54 ↑ (2.24)

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pablo Llamas Ruiz
63.2%

Jan Choinski
36.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.9%

41.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.5%

41.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pablo Llamas Ruiz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Jan Choinski has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pablo Llamas Ruiz than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jan Choinski than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Jan Choinski Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Llamas Ruiz will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Choinski will win (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Llamas Ruiz is ranked ATP: 191. Choinski is ranked ATP: 123.

Llamas Ruiz is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Choinski has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Choinski may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Llamas Ruiz is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Llamas Ruiz won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Jan Choinski - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 41.05%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pablo Llamas Ruiz
ATP Challenger
17.03.26	Pablo Llamas Ruiz - David Jorda Sanchis	2:0 ✺
16.03.26	Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Javier Barranco Cosano	Canceled ✺
14.02.26	Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Lloyd Harris	0:2 ✺
13.02.26	Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Luka Mikrut	2:1 ✺
11.02.26	Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Jacopo Berrettini	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 W?LWW
- Jan Choinski
ATP Challenger
16.03.26	Miguel Damas - Jan Choinski	1:2 ✺
06.03.26	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Jan Choinski	2:0 ✺
04.03.26	Roman Safiullin - Jan Choinski	1:2 ✺
03.03.26	Mae Malige - Jan Choinski	0:2 ✺
ATP Dubai
22.02.26	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard - Jan Choinski	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
18.03.24	Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Jan Choinski	2:0

Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Jan Choinski: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide