Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: SHANGHAI (CHINA), HARD - 1/64-FINALS

Date: 5 October 2023, Thursday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1, Max Sport 2, Max Sport 3
Croatia	SportKlub
Denmark	TV2 Sport X
Finland	Discovery+, Eurosport 1
France	Eurosport 1
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top event
Portugal	Sport TV2
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub
Sweden	Discovery+, Eurosport 1
Ukraine	Setanta Sports


	Pavel Kotov		Arthur Fils

	1	2
	2.63	1.5	Watch
	2.4	1.55
	2.45	1.55	Watch
	2.5	1.5
	2.53	1.58
	2.6	1.5	Watch
	2.59	1.5	Watch
	2.65	1.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↓ (2.92)	1.52 ↑ (1.41)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pavel Kotov
37.4%

Arthur Fils
62.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.6%

67.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.8%

69.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pavel Kotov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Arthur Fils has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pavel Kotov than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pavel Kotov that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arthur Fils than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Arthur Fils could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	0%	27.3%

Pavel Kotov - Arthur Fils Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Kotov will win (votes: 16 - 72.7%). Fils will win (votes: 6 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kotov: 54.1% – 91.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Recent matches Kotov is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Fils is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Fils could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Fils will have a mini benefit in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pavel Kotov
ATP Beijing
26.09.23	Miomir Kecmanovic - Pavel Kotov	2:1 ✺
ATP Chengdu
23.09.23	Alexander Zverev - Pavel Kotov	2:1 ✺
21.09.23	Daniel Elahi Galan - Pavel Kotov	0:2 ✺
19.09.23	Pavel Kotov - Omar Jasika	2:0 ✺
19.09.23	Pavel Kotov - Jose-Rubin Statham	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LLWWW
- Arthur Fils
ATP Laver Cup
22.09.23	Arthur Fils - Ben Shelton	0:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group
17.09.23	Daniel Evans - Arthur Fils	2:1 ✺
ATP US Open
31.08.23	Arthur Fils - Matteo Arnaldi	2:3 ✺
29.08.23	Tallon Griekspoor - Arthur Fils	2:3 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
22.08.23	Arthur Fils - Brandon Nakashima	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LLLWL

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