Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Heilbronn, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 1 June 2026, Monday


	Pavel Kotov		Guy Den Ouden

	1	2
	1.8	1.91	Watch
	1.79	1.92
	1.83	2.06
	1.88	1.82	Watch
	1.8	1.91	Watch
	1.76	1.93	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↑ (1.62)	1.93 ↓ (2.2)

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pavel Kotov
51.5%

Guy Den Ouden
48.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.6%

42.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.7%

43.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pavel Kotov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Pavel Kotov's form might have worsened.

Guy Den Ouden has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Guy Den Ouden's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pavel Kotov than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pavel Kotov, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guy Den Ouden than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Guy Den Ouden, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Pavel Kotov - Guy Den Ouden Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Kotov will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Kotov is ranked ATP: 255. Den Ouden is ranked ATP: 211.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Den Ouden may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Pavel Kotov - the odds 1.62 are the expected chance of winning is 57.59%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Guy Den Ouden - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 42.41%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pavel Kotov
ATP Challenger
28.05.26	Cezar Cretu - Pavel Kotov	2:1 ✺
26.05.26	Pavel Kotov - Gauthier Onclin	2:1 ✺
21.04.26	Pavel Kotov - Mikhail Kukushkin	1:2 ✺
15.04.26	Pavel Kotov - Leandro Riedi	Kotov P. Retired ✺
14.04.26	Yi Zhou - Pavel Kotov	Zhou Y. Retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LWL??
- Guy Den Ouden
ATP Roland Garros
18.05.26	Dalibor Svrcina - Guy Den Ouden	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
13.05.26	Guy Den Ouden - Dali Blanch	0:2 ✺
11.05.26	Guy Den Ouden - Dan Added	2:0 ✺
06.05.26	August Holmgren - Guy Den Ouden	2:0 ✺
04.05.26	Juan Pablo Ficovich - Guy Den Ouden	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLWLW

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