Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Thionville, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday


	August Holmgren		Keegan Smith

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August Holmgren
39%

Keegan Smith
61%

(when we started the analysis)

41.7%

58.3%

40.3%

59.7%

August Holmgren has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Keegan Smith has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for August Holmgren than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Keegan Smith than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Holmgren (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Holmgren is ranked ATP: 201. Smith is ranked ATP: 306.

Holmgren is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Smith is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Holmgren may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

We predict that Smith will win today's game, with odds of 1.65.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- August Holmgren
ATP Challenger
26.02.26	August Holmgren - Mika Brunold	0:2 ✺
24.02.26	August Holmgren - Kaichi Uchida	2:1 ✺
16.02.26	August Holmgren - Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg	0:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group
07.02.26	Matej Dodig - August Holmgren	Canceled ✺
06.02.26	Dino Prizmic - August Holmgren	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LWL?L
- Keegan Smith
ATP Challenger
02.03.26	Neil Oberleitner - Keegan Smith	0:2 ✺
01.03.26	Matteo Martineau - Keegan Smith	0:2 ✺
24.02.26	Keegan Smith - Geoffrey Blancaneaux	0:2 ✺
23.02.26	Keegan Smith - Jakub Paul	2:0 ✺
22.02.26	Keegan Smith - Max Hans Rehberg	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WWLWW

August Holmgren - Keegan Smith: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide