Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Marrakech, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 1 April 2025, Tuesday


	Pavel Kotov		Mattia Bellucci

	1	2
	1.73	2.1	Watch
	1.78	2	Watch
	1.74	2.06	Watch
	1.73	2.08	Watch
	1.85	1.95	Watch
	1.75	2.08	Watch
	1.74	2.06
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↓ (2.1)	2.05 ↑ (1.73)

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pavel Kotov
53.8%

Mattia Bellucci
46.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.2%

54.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.9%

53.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pavel Kotov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Pavel Kotov's performance.

Mattia Bellucci has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mattia Bellucci might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pavel Kotov than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pavel Kotov that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mattia Bellucci than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mattia Bellucci could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.6%	0%	21.4%

Pavel Kotov - Mattia Bellucci Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Kotov will win (votes: 21 - 77.8%). Bellucci will win (votes: 6 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kotov: 62.1% – 93.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Kotov is ranked ATP: 102. Bellucci is ranked ATP: 72.

Recent matches Kotov is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Bellucci has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Bellucci could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both players are almost equal.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Kotov won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:0

Last Results with these Odds

Pavel Kotov - the odds 2.1 are the expected chance of winning is 45.17%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pavel Kotov
ATP Miami
18.03.25	Pavel Kotov - Mackenzie McDonald	0:2 ✺
17.03.25	Pavel Kotov - Alexis Galarneau	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
12.03.25	Pavel Kotov - Joao Fonseca	0:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
04.03.25	Colton Smith - Pavel Kotov	2:0 ✺
03.03.25	Chak Lam Coleman Wong - Pavel Kotov	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LWLLW
- Mattia Bellucci
ATP Miami
19.03.25	Chun Hsin Tseng - Mattia Bellucci	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
11.03.25	Aleksandar Kovacevic - Mattia Bellucci	2:0 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
03.03.25	Mattia Bellucci - Yosuke Watanuki	0:2 ✺
ATP Acapulco
25.02.25	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Mattia Bellucci	2:1 ✺
23.02.25	Mattia Bellucci - Gabriel Diallo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
14.03.23	Pavel Kotov - Mattia Bellucci	2:0

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