Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Marrakech (Morocco), clay - Semi-finals

Date: 6 April 2024, Saturday

Referee: Absolu M. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Croatia	SportKlub
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 2
France	Eurosport 2
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis
Poland	Polsat Sport Extra
Portugal	Sport TV5
Romania	Digi Sport 2
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub


	Pavel Kotov		Roberto Carballes Baena

	1	2
	2	1.8	Watch
	2	1.78
	2	1.78	Watch
	2.09	1.83
	2.09	1.83
	2	1.8	Watch
	2.03	1.79	Watch
	1.93	1.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↓ (2.31)	1.82 ↑ (1.62)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pavel Kotov
47.4%

Roberto Carballes Baena
52.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.2%

58.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.6%

60.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pavel Kotov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Pavel Kotov's performance.

Roberto Carballes Baena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Roberto Carballes Baena might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pavel Kotov than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pavel Kotov that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Roberto Carballes Baena than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Roberto Carballes Baena could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Pavel Kotov - Roberto Carballes Baena Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Kotov will win (votes: 20 - 66.7%). Carballes Baena will win (votes: 10 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kotov: 49.8% – 83.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Carballes Baena could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both players.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Kotov won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pavel Kotov
ATP Marrakech
05.04.24	Fabio Fognini - Pavel Kotov	0:2 ✺
03.04.24	Pavel Kotov - Flavio Cobolli	2:0 ✺
01.04.24	Pavel Kotov - Elliot Benchetrit	2:0 ✺
ATP Miami
20.03.24	Pavel Kotov - Luca Van Assche	0:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
08.03.24	Pavel Kotov - Alejandro Tabilo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WWWLL
- Roberto Carballes Baena
ATP Marrakech
05.04.24	Roberto Carballes Baena - Nicolas Moreno De Alboran	2:1 ✺
04.04.24	Daniel Evans - Roberto Carballes Baena	0:2 ✺
02.04.24	Matteo Gigante - Roberto Carballes Baena	Gigante M. retired ✺
ATP Miami
23.03.24	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Roberto Carballes Baena	2:0 ✺
21.03.24	Aleksandar Vukic - Roberto Carballes Baena	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WW?LW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
14.04.22	Roberto Carballes Baena - Pavel Kotov	2:1

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