Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Barcelona, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 14 April 2025, Monday


	Pedro Martinez Portero		Brandon Nakashima

	1	2
	2.1	1.73	Watch
	2.05	1.75
	2.1	1.7	Watch
	2.15	1.69	Watch
	2.2	1.67	Watch
	2.28	1.65	Watch
	2.1	1.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (2.29)	1.7 ↑ (1.63)

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pedro Martinez Portero
44.3%

Brandon Nakashima
55.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.6%

58.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

61%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pedro Martinez Portero has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Brandon Nakashima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pedro Martinez Portero than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pedro Martinez Portero that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brandon Nakashima than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Brandon Nakashima could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	0%	37.5%

Pedro Martinez Portero - Brandon Nakashima Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Martinez Portero will win (votes: 10 - 62.5%). Nakashima will win (votes: 6 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Martinez Portero: 38.8% – 86.2%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Games - Martinez Portero (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 22 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Pedro Martinez Portero will win (7 of 9 users predict this - 77.78%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Martinez Portero (votes: 8 - 80%). Nakashima (votes: 2 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Martinez Portero is ranked ATP: 51. Nakashima is ranked ATP: 31.

Both players are now playing unstable.

Nakashima could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Nakashima will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Martinez Portero won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1:4 (average 0.5:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Brandon Nakashima - the odds 1.63 are the expected chance of winning is 58.37%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pedro Martinez Portero
ATP Monte Carlo
09.04.25	Nuno Borges - Pedro Martinez Portero	2:1 ✺
08.04.25	Lorenzo Sonego - Pedro Martinez Portero	1:2 ✺
ATP Bucharest
04.04.25	Damir Dzumhur - Pedro Martinez Portero	Martinez P. retired ✺
03.04.25	Stanislas Wawrinka - Pedro Martinez Portero	1:2 ✺
ATP Miami
20.03.25	Pedro Martinez Portero - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LW?WL
- Brandon Nakashima
ATP Monte Carlo
08.04.25	Roberto Bautista-Agut - Brandon Nakashima	2:0 ✺
ATP Houston
05.04.25	Brandon Nakashima - Francis Tiafoe	0:2 ✺
04.04.25	Christopher Eubanks - Brandon Nakashima	0:2 ✺
03.04.25	Mackenzie McDonald - Brandon Nakashima	0:2 ✺
ATP Miami
25.03.25	Grigor Dimitrov - Brandon Nakashima	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
01.05.24	Pedro Martinez Portero - Brandon Nakashima	1:2
21.01.24	Brandon Nakashima - Pedro Martinez Portero	2:0

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