Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Shanghai, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN 2
Australia	beIN Sports 1
Brazil	ESPN 2
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Colombia	ESPN
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Premier Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis
Mexico	ESPN 2
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4, Ziggo Sport
Peru	ESPN 2
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Tennis
Ukraine	Setanta Sports+
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis


	Rafael Jodar		Daniil Medvedev

	1	2
	2.63	1.50	Watch
	2.50	1.53
	2.60	1.50	Watch
	2.59	1.5	Watch
	2.55	1.54
	2.61	1.52	Watch
	2.60	1.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.58 ↑ (2.57)	1.51 ↑ (1.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rafael Jodar
36.9%

Daniil Medvedev
63.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

60.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Rafael Jodar have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

The chances for Daniil Medvedev have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rafael Jodar than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniil Medvedev than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.7%	0%	31.2%

Rafael Jodar - Daniil Medvedev Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Jodar will win (votes: 11 - 68.8%). Medvedev will win (votes: 5 - 31.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Jodar: 46.1% – 91.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Jodar (votes: 1 - 50%). Medvedev (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Jodar is ranked ATP: 13., and Medvedev is ranked ATP: 5..

Both players look competitive and well-prepared heading into this encounter.

Jodar could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Medvedev is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

Our forecast points to a victory for Medvedev in today's match, at odds of 1.49.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Last Results with these Odds

Daniil Medvedev - the odds 1.5 are the expected chance of winning is 63.14%, but this team recently wins 46% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rafael Jodar
ATP Shanghai
16.10.26	Rafael Jodar - Casper Ruud	2:1 ✺
14.10.26	Botic Van De Zandschulp - Rafael Jodar	1:2 ✺
12.10.26	Jiri Lehecka - Rafael Jodar	1:2 ✺
10.10.26	Thiago Augustin Tirante - Rafael Jodar	1:2 ✺
ATP Tokyo
01.10.26	Daniel Vallejo - Rafael Jodar	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WWWWL
- Daniil Medvedev
ATP Shanghai
16.10.26	Daniil Medvedev - Tommy Paul	2:1 ✺
14.10.26	Daniil Medvedev - Stefanos Tsitsipas	2:0 ✺
12.10.26	Daniil Medvedev - Dalibor Svrcina	2:0 ✺
10.10.26	Daniil Medvedev - Jan-Lennard Struff	2:1 ✺
ATP Beijing
05.10.26	Novak Djokovic - Daniil Medvedev	Djokovic N. Awarded ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WWWW?

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rafael Jodar
ATP Shanghai
18.10.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Rafael Jodar	✺

Rafael Jodar - Daniil Medvedev: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide