Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Cagliari, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 29 April 2026, Wednesday


	Rei Sakamoto		Gianluca Cadenasso

	1	2
	1.67	2.1	Watch
	1.72	2	Watch
	1.71	2.03
	1.81	2.08
	1.72	2.03	Watch
	1.73	2
	1.74	1.95	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↑ (1.6)	2.03 ↓ (2.2)

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rei Sakamoto
54%

Gianluca Cadenasso
46%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.9%

42.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.3%

45.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rei Sakamoto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Gianluca Cadenasso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rei Sakamoto than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gianluca Cadenasso than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Rei Sakamoto - Gianluca Cadenasso Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Sakamoto (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Sets - Sakamoto (1.27) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Rei Sakamoto will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Sakamoto (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Sakamoto is ranked ATP: 159. Cadenasso is ranked ATP: 232.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Cadenasso may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Gianluca Cadenasso - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 42.11%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rei Sakamoto
ATP Challenger
28.04.26	Rei Sakamoto - Ryan Seggerman	2:1 ✺
27.04.26	Rei Sakamoto - Nicola Porcu	2:0 ✺
ATP Madrid
21.04.26	Rei Sakamoto - Vilius Gaubas	1:2 ✺
20.04.26	Zachary Svajda - Rei Sakamoto	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
16.04.26	Henrique Rocha - Rei Sakamoto	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWLWL
- Gianluca Cadenasso
ATP Challenger
22.04.26	Gianluca Cadenasso - Jacopo Vasami	0:2 ✺
20.04.26	Alex Barrena - Gianluca Cadenasso	1:2 ✺
07.04.26	Gianluca Cadenasso - Hugo Gaston	0:2 ✺
30.03.26	Felix Gill - Gianluca Cadenasso	2:0 ✺
24.03.26	Gianluca Cadenasso - Eduardo Ribeiro	Cadenasso G. Retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LWLL?

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