Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid - Qualification, clay - Final

Date: 21 April 2026, Tuesday


	Rei Sakamoto		Vilius Gaubas

	1	2
			Watch
	1.85	1.85	Watch
	1.81	2.13
	1.84	1.92	Watch
	1.83	1.83	Watch
	1.9	1.9	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (1.96)	1.93 ↑ (1.82)

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rei Sakamoto
51.1%

Vilius Gaubas
48.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.2%

51.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.5%

52.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rei Sakamoto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Vilius Gaubas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rei Sakamoto than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vilius Gaubas than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Rei Sakamoto - Vilius Gaubas Predictions

Users Predictions: Rei Sakamoto will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Sakamoto is ranked ATP: 159. Gaubas is ranked ATP: 124.

Recent performances by Sakamoto have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Gaubas has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Gaubas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rei Sakamoto
ATP Madrid
20.04.26	Zachary Svajda - Rei Sakamoto	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
16.04.26	Henrique Rocha - Rei Sakamoto	2:0 ✺
14.04.26	Borna Gojo - Rei Sakamoto	Canceled ✺
08.04.26	Rei Sakamoto - Luca Van Assche	0:2 ✺
06.04.26	Rei Sakamoto - Roberto Carballes Baena	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WL?LW
- Vilius Gaubas
ATP Madrid
20.04.26	Arthur Gea - Vilius Gaubas	0:2 ✺
ATP Barcelona
11.04.26	Hamad Medjedovic - Vilius Gaubas	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
06.04.26	Vilius Gaubas - Stefano Travaglia	0:2 ✺
ATP Bucharest
31.03.26	Sebastian Baez - Vilius Gaubas	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
26.03.26	Max Houkes - Vilius Gaubas	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 WLLLL

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