Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid - Qualification, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 20 April 2026, Monday


	Zachary Svajda		Rei Sakamoto

	1	2
			Watch
	2.2	1.57	Watch
	2.46	1.61
	2.34	1.57	Watch
	2.25	1.57	Watch
	2.36	1.59	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↑ (1.91)	1.58 ↓ (1.88)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Zachary Svajda
40.5%

Rei Sakamoto
59.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.6%

50.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.4%

51.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zachary Svajda has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Zachary Svajda's form might have worsened.

Rei Sakamoto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Rei Sakamoto's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zachary Svajda than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Zachary Svajda, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rei Sakamoto than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Rei Sakamoto, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.9%	0%	9.1%

Zachary Svajda - Rei Sakamoto Predictions

Users Predictions: Zachary Svajda will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Zachary Svajda will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Svajda is ranked ATP: 84. Sakamoto is ranked ATP: 161.

Recent performances by Svajda have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Sakamoto is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Svajda may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Zachary Svajda - the odds 1.91 are the expected chance of winning is 49.6%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Zachary Svajda
ATP Houston
30.03.26	Daniel Vallejo - Zachary Svajda	2:0 ✺
ATP Miami
19.03.26	Moise Kouame - Zachary Svajda	2:1 ✺
17.03.26	Zachary Svajda - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:1 ✺
17.03.26	Zachary Svajda - Colton Smith	2:1 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
06.03.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Zachary Svajda	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LLWWL
- Rei Sakamoto
ATP Challenger
16.04.26	Henrique Rocha - Rei Sakamoto	2:0 ✺
14.04.26	Borna Gojo - Rei Sakamoto	Canceled ✺
08.04.26	Rei Sakamoto - Luca Van Assche	0:2 ✺
06.04.26	Rei Sakamoto - Roberto Carballes Baena	2:0 ✺
ATP Marrakech
30.03.26	Marco Trungelliti - Rei Sakamoto	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 L?LWL

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