Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Monza, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 6 April 2026, Monday


	Rei Sakamoto		Roberto Carballes Baena

	1	2
	2.38	1.53	Watch
	2.25	1.55	Watch
	2.42	1.61
	2.38	1.51	Watch
	2.25	1.57
	2.32	1.54	Watch
	2.31	1.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↓ (2.38)	1.55 ↑ (1.53)

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rei Sakamoto
39.9%

Roberto Carballes Baena
60.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.1%

60.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.9%

59.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rei Sakamoto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Roberto Carballes Baena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rei Sakamoto than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roberto Carballes Baena than the current prediction. (-1%)

Rei Sakamoto - Roberto Carballes Baena Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Sakamoto is ranked ATP: 166. Carballes Baena is ranked ATP: 159.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Sakamoto may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Carballes Baena could have a small edge in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rei Sakamoto
ATP Marrakech
30.03.26	Marco Trungelliti - Rei Sakamoto	2:0 ✺
29.03.26	Amine Jamji - Rei Sakamoto	0:2 ✺
ATP Miami
21.03.26	Rei Sakamoto - Daniil Medvedev	1:2 ✺
20.03.26	Aleksandar Kovacevic - Rei Sakamoto	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
10.03.26	Luca Van Assche - Rei Sakamoto	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LWLWL
- Roberto Carballes Baena
ATP Challenger
03.04.26	Jonas Forejtek - Roberto Carballes Baena	2:1 ✺
02.04.26	Felipe Virgili Berini - Roberto Carballes Baena	0:2 ✺
24.03.26	Roberto Carballes Baena - Vilius Gaubas	Canceled ✺
22.03.26	Roberto Carballes Baena - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
21.03.26	Jesper De Jong - Roberto Carballes Baena	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LW?LW

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