Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Alicante, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 24 March 2026, Tuesday


	Roberto Carballes Baena		Vilius Gaubas

	1	2
	2	1.73	Watch
	1.65	2.1
	1.69	2.05
	2	1.86
	1.88	1.82	Watch
	2.2	1.62
	2.16	1.62	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↑ (1.84)	1.83 ↓ (1.84)

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Roberto Carballes Baena
48.5%

Vilius Gaubas
51.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.7%

52.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Roberto Carballes Baena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Vilius Gaubas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roberto Carballes Baena than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vilius Gaubas than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.6%	0%	36.4%

Roberto Carballes Baena - Vilius Gaubas Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Carballes Baena will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Gaubas will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Carballes Baena: 35.2% – 92%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Gaubas (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Carballes Baena is ranked ATP: 165. Gaubas is ranked ATP: 105.

Carballes Baena is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Gaubas has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Gaubas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Roberto Carballes Baena - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Roberto Carballes Baena
ATP Challenger
22.03.26	Roberto Carballes Baena - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
21.03.26	Jesper De Jong - Roberto Carballes Baena	1:2 ✺
20.03.26	Sebastian Ofner - Roberto Carballes Baena	1:2 ✺
18.03.26	Mikhail Kukushkin - Roberto Carballes Baena	1:2 ✺
17.03.26	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo - Roberto Carballes Baena	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 LWWWW
- Vilius Gaubas
ATP Challenger
17.03.26	Alejandro Moro Canas - Vilius Gaubas	2:0 ✺
ATP Santiago
27.02.26	Yannick Hanfmann - Vilius Gaubas	2:1 ✺
25.02.26	Dino Prizmic - Vilius Gaubas	1:2 ✺
24.02.26	Matias Soto - Vilius Gaubas	0:2 ✺
22.02.26	Vilius Gaubas - Alex Barrena	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LLWWL

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