Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Toronto, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 28 July 2025, Monday


	Roberto Carballes Baena		Camilo Ugo Carabelli

	1	2
	1.91	1.91	Watch
	1.9	1.9	Watch
	1.88	1.88	Watch
	1.93	1.95
	1.90	1.88	Watch
	1.91	1.91	Watch
	1.91	1.89	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (2.3)	1.9 ↑ (1.62)

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Roberto Carballes Baena
50%

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
50%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.3%

58.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37%

63%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Roberto Carballes Baena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Roberto Carballes Baena's performance.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Camilo Ugo Carabelli might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roberto Carballes Baena than the current prediction. (-13%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Roberto Carballes Baena that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Camilo Ugo Carabelli than the current prediction. (+13%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Camilo Ugo Carabelli could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
52%	0%	48%

Roberto Carballes Baena - Camilo Ugo Carabelli Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Carballes Baena will win (votes: 13 - 52%). Ugo Carabelli will win (votes: 12 - 48%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Carballes Baena: 32.4% – 71.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Carballes Baena (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Ugo Carabelli (votes: 5 - 41.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Games - Carballes Baena (1.73) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Carballes Baena (votes: 9 - 64.3%). Ugo Carabelli (votes: 5 - 35.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Carballes Baena is ranked ATP: 85. Ugo Carabelli is ranked ATP: 51.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Carballes Baena may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Ugo Carabelli could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Camilo Ugo Carabelli - the odds 1.62 are the expected chance of winning is 58.67%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Roberto Carballes Baena
ATP Umag
21.07.25	Roberto Carballes Baena - Nikoloz Basilashvili	0:2 ✺
ATP Gstaad
17.07.25	Francisco Comesana - Roberto Carballes Baena	2:0 ✺
15.07.25	Roberto Carballes Baena - Carlos Taberner	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
10.07.25	Alex Molcan - Roberto Carballes Baena	Carballes Baena R. retired ✺
09.07.25	Christoph Negritu - Roberto Carballes Baena	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLW?W
- Camilo Ugo Carabelli
ATP Umag
25.07.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
24.07.25	Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	Llamas Ruiz P. retired ✺
22.07.25	Francesco Passaro - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	1:2 ✺
ATP Bastad
19.07.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Jesper De Jong	0:2 ✺
18.07.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Filip Misolic	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 L?WLW

Roberto Carballes Baena - Camilo Ugo Carabelli: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide