Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Hamburg (Germany), clay - Semi-finals

Date: 20 July 2024, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 1
Brazil	ESPN 2
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 3
Finland	MTV Katsomo
France	Eurosport 2
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis
Hungary	Match 4
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
Poland	Polsat Sport 2, Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	Sport TV6
Romania	Digi Sport 3, Prima Sport 3


	Sebastian Baez		Arthur Fils

	1	2
	2.1	1.73	Watch
	2.1	1.7
	2.1	1.71	Watch
	2.17	1.76
	2.24	1.71	Watch
	2.2	1.67	Watch
	2.16	1.71	Watch
	2.12	1.76
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↓ (2.21)	1.72 ↑ (1.67)

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sebastian Baez
44.4%

Arthur Fils
55.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.1%

56.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

56.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sebastian Baez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Arthur Fils has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arthur Fils than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	0%	72.7%

Sebastian Baez - Arthur Fils Predictions

Users Predictions: 43 users predict this event. Baez will win (votes: 12 - 27.9%). Fils will win (votes: 31 - 72.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fils: 58.7% – 85.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Recent matches Baez is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Fils is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Baez could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The chances to win of two players are almost the same in this match.

Our prediction for today's Fils to win the game is with odds 1.7.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sebastian Baez
ATP Hamburg
19.07.24	Luciano Darderi - Sebastian Baez	1:2 ✺
17.07.24	Dusan Lajovic - Sebastian Baez	1:2 ✺
16.07.24	Dominik Koepfer - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
01.07.24	Sebastian Baez - Brandon Nakashima	0:3 ✺
ATP Eastbourne
26.06.24	Miomir Kecmanovic - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWWLL
- Arthur Fils
ATP Hamburg
19.07.24	Arthur Fils - Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune	Rune H. retired ✺
18.07.24	Arthur Fils - Laslo Djere	2:0 ✺
16.07.24	Arthur Fils - Jaume Munar	2:1 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
08.07.24	Arthur Fils - Alex De Minaur	1:3 ✺
06.07.24	Arthur Fils - Roman Safiullin	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 ?WWLW

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