Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Cincinnati, hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 9 August 2025, Saturday


	Sebastian Baez		Gabriel Diallo

	1	2
	4.33	1.22	Watch
	4.1	1.22	Watch
	4.2	1.23
	4.34	1.25
	3.93	1.23	Watch
	4.2	1.22	Watch
			Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.18 ↑ (3.5)	1.23 ↓ (1.3)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sebastian Baez
22.7%

Gabriel Diallo
77.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.1%

72.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.7%

73.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sebastian Baez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Gabriel Diallo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gabriel Diallo than the current prediction. (-4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Sebastian Baez - Gabriel Diallo Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Baez will win (votes: 6 - 60%). Diallo will win (votes: 4 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Baez: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Diallo (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Baez is ranked ATP: 43. Diallo is ranked ATP: 35.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Baez may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Diallo is the team to beat.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Baez won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sebastian Baez
ATP Cincinnati
07.08.25	Sebastian Baez - David Goffin	2:0 ✺
ATP Kitzbuhel
23.07.25	Yannick Hanfmann - Sebastian Baez	2:1 ✺
ATP Bastad
18.07.25	Sebastian Baez - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
16.07.25	Sebastian Baez - Nicolai Budkov Kjaer	2:1 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
01.07.25	Jack Draper - Sebastian Baez	Baez S. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 WLLW?
- Gabriel Diallo
ATP Toronto
01.08.25	Gabriel Diallo - Taylor Harry Fritz	0:2 ✺
30.07.25	Gabriel Diallo - Matteo Gigante	2:0 ✺
ATP Washington
24.07.25	Ben Shelton - Gabriel Diallo	2:0 ✺
22.07.25	Fabian Marozsan - Gabriel Diallo	0:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
02.07.25	Taylor Harry Fritz - Gabriel Diallo	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Bucharest
03.04.25	Sebastian Baez - Gabriel Diallo	2:1

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