Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Jinan, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 15 October 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Jinan 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Shintaro Mochizuki		Dane Sweeny

	1	2
	1.67	2.10	Watch
	1.65	2.10
	1.70	2.10	Watch
	1.66	2.08	Watch
	1.70	2.18
	1.68	2.06	Watch
	1.65	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↑ (1.65)	2.1 ↑ (2.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shintaro Mochizuki
55.6%

Dane Sweeny
44.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

55.9%

44.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.8%

48.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shintaro Mochizuki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Dane Sweeny has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shintaro Mochizuki than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dane Sweeny than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Shintaro Mochizuki - Dane Sweeny Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Mochizuki will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Sweeny will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Mochizuki is ranked ATP: 123., and Sweeny is ranked ATP: 112..

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Sweeny may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Mochizuki has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Shintaro Mochizuki - the odds 1.65 are the expected chance of winning is 55.88%, but this team recently wins 87% of matches with these odds.

Dane Sweeny - the odds 2.09 are the expected chance of winning is 44.12%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shintaro Mochizuki
ATP Challenger
13.10.26	Facundo Diaz Acosta - Shintaro Mochizuki	0:2 ✺
ATP Shanghai
06.10.26	Roman Safiullin - Shintaro Mochizuki	2:0 ✺
05.10.26	Taro Daniel - Shintaro Mochizuki	1:2 ✺
ATP Tokyo
28.09.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Jaime Faria	0:2 ✺
ATP Chengdu
24.09.26	Martin Damm - Shintaro Mochizuki	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLWLL
- Dane Sweeny
ATP Challenger
13.10.26	Dane Sweeny - Bernard Tomic	Tomic B. Retired ✺
ATP Shanghai
06.10.26	Dane Sweeny - Kimmer Coppejans	0:2 ✺
05.10.26	Dane Sweeny - Tristan Schoolkate	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
02.10.26	Alex Bolt - Dane Sweeny	2:0 ✺
30.09.26	Petr Bar-Biryukov - Dane Sweeny	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 ?LWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Montreal
01.08.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Dane Sweeny	2:1

Shintaro Mochizuki - Dane Sweeny