Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Montreal - Qualification, hard - Final

Date: 1 August 2026, Saturday


	Shintaro Mochizuki		Dane Sweeny

	1	2
			Watch
	1.60	2.25
	1.58	2.23	Watch
	1.65	2.33
	1.59	2.29	Watch
	1.62	2.25	Watch
	1.61	2.18	Watch
	1.59	2.26
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↑ (1.46)	2.26 ↓ (2.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shintaro Mochizuki
58.4%

Dane Sweeny
41.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.2%

35.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.5%

36.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shintaro Mochizuki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Shintaro Mochizuki's form might have worsened.

Dane Sweeny has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Dane Sweeny's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shintaro Mochizuki than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Shintaro Mochizuki, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dane Sweeny than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Dane Sweeny, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	0%	11.1%

Shintaro Mochizuki - Dane Sweeny Predictions

Users Predictions: Shintaro Mochizuki will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Mochizuki is ranked ATP: 114. Sweeny is ranked ATP: 121.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Sweeny may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Mochizuki might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Shintaro Mochizuki - the odds 1.46 are the expected chance of winning is 64.22%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shintaro Mochizuki
ATP Challenger
29.07.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Hayato Matsuoka	0:2 ✺
28.07.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Charles Broom	2:1 ✺
25.07.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Liam Draxl	0:2 ✺
24.07.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Johannus Monday	2:0 ✺
23.07.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Duncan Chan	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LWLWW
- Dane Sweeny
ATP Challenger
29.07.26	Dane Sweeny - Daniel Milavsky	0:2 ✺
28.07.26	Dane Sweeny - Duncan Chan	2:0 ✺
21.07.26	Andres Martin - Dane Sweeny	2:1 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
30.06.26	Dane Sweeny - Grigor Dimitrov	0:3 ✺
25.06.26	Dane Sweeny - Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LWLLW

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