Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Busan, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 14 April 2026, Tuesday


	Sho Shimabukuro		Ilia Simakin

	1	2
	1.67	2.1	Watch
	1.7	2	Watch
	1.77	2.14
	1.68	2.06	Watch
	1.73	2	Watch
	1.7	2.01	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.57)	2.05 ↓ (2.23)

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sho Shimabukuro
54.6%

Ilia Simakin
45.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.6%

41.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.5%

33.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sho Shimabukuro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Ilia Simakin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sho Shimabukuro than the current prediction. (+11.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sho Shimabukuro, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilia Simakin than the current prediction. (-11.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ilia Simakin, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	0%	90%

Sho Shimabukuro - Ilia Simakin Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Shimabukuro will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Simakin will win (votes: 8 - 88.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Simakin: 68.4% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Simakin (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Shimabukuro is ranked ATP: 112. Simakin is ranked ATP: 221.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Shimabukuro may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Shimabukuro won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:0. (average 1:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sho Shimabukuro
ATP Challenger
23.03.26	Sho Shimabukuro - Naoya Honda	0:2 ✺
ATP Miami
17.03.26	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Sho Shimabukuro	2:0 ✺
16.03.26	Alex Bolt - Sho Shimabukuro	1:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
05.03.26	Alexander Shevchenko - Sho Shimabukuro	2:1 ✺
03.03.26	Martin Landaluce - Sho Shimabukuro	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLWLW
- Ilia Simakin
ATP Challenger
10.04.26	Pavel Kotov - Ilia Simakin	2:1 ✺
08.04.26	Daniil Ostapenkov - Ilia Simakin	0:2 ✺
06.04.26	Tom Paris - Ilia Simakin	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
02.04.26	Ilia Simakin - Kuan-Yi Lee	1:2 ✺
01.04.26	Ilia Simakin - Filip Peliwo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
21.10.25	Ilia Simakin - Sho Shimabukuro	Shimabukuro S. retired
29.08.25	Ilia Simakin - Sho Shimabukuro	0:2

Sho Shimabukuro - Ilia Simakin: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide