Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Nottingham 3, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 8 January 2026, Thursday


	Stefan Kozlov		Toby Samuel

	1	2
	2.75	1.4	Watch
	2.75	1.37	Watch
	2.48	1.48	Watch
	2.63	1.44
	2.5	1.47	Watch
	2.9	1.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↓ (2.7)	1.42 ↑ (1.41)

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stefan Kozlov
34.8%

Toby Samuel
65.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.3%

65.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.3%

64.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stefan Kozlov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Toby Samuel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stefan Kozlov than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toby Samuel than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Stefan Kozlov - Toby Samuel Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Kozlov will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Samuel will win (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +4.5 Games - Kozlov (1.58) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Stefan Kozlov will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Kozlov (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Kozlov is ranked ATP: 287. Samuel is ranked ATP: 261.

In recent matches, Kozlov has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Samuel is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Samuel might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Samuel will win today's game, with odds of 1.42.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Kozlov won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stefan Kozlov
ATP Challenger
07.01.26	Stefan Kozlov - Mathys Erhard	2:0 ✺
06.01.26	Stefan Kozlov - Tyler Zink	2:0 ✺
28.11.25	Juan Sebastian Gomez - Stefan Kozlov	2:1 ✺
27.11.25	David Jorda Sanchis - Stefan Kozlov	0:2 ✺
25.11.25	Juan Bautista Torres - Stefan Kozlov	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WWLWW
- Toby Samuel
ATP Challenger
07.01.26	Liam Broady - Toby Samuel	0:2 ✺
06.01.26	Carl Emil Overbeck - Toby Samuel	0:2 ✺
30.11.25	Toby Samuel - Ilia Simakin	2:0 ✺
29.11.25	Toby Samuel - Matisse Bobichon	2:0 ✺
28.11.25	Toby Samuel - Sergey Fomin	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WWWWW

Stefan Kozlov - Toby Samuel: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide