Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Indian Wells, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday


	Stefanos Tsitsipas		Denis Shapovalov

	1	2
	1.73	2.1	Watch
	1.74	2.1	Watch
	1.75	2.18
	1.74	2.09	Watch
	1.73	2.1
	1.75	2.18	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↑ (1.71)	2.13 ↑ (2.06)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stefanos Tsitsipas
55%

Denis Shapovalov
45%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.6%

45.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.5%

45.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stefanos Tsitsipas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Denis Shapovalov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stefanos Tsitsipas than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Denis Shapovalov than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45.5%	0%	54.5%

Stefanos Tsitsipas - Denis Shapovalov Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Tsitsipas will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). Shapovalov will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Shapovalov: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Tsitsipas (votes: 2 - 50%). Shapovalov (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Tsitsipas is ranked ATP: 43. Shapovalov is ranked ATP: 39.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tsitsipas won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Shapovalov may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Tsitsipas won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:9. (average 0.8:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stefanos Tsitsipas
ATP Dubai
24.02.26	Ugo Humbert - Stefanos Tsitsipas	2:0 ✺
ATP Doha
19.02.26	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Andrey Rublev	0:2 ✺
18.02.26	Daniil Medvedev - Stefanos Tsitsipas	0:2 ✺
17.02.26	Moez Echargui - Stefanos Tsitsipas	0:2 ✺
ATP Rotterdam
12.02.26	Botic Van De Zandschulp - Stefanos Tsitsipas	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LLWWL
- Denis Shapovalov
ATP Dubai
24.02.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Denis Shapovalov	2:0 ✺
23.02.26	Tomas Machac - Denis Shapovalov	Canceled ✺
ATP Dallas
14.02.26	Denis Shapovalov - Ben Shelton	1:2 ✺
13.02.26	Denis Shapovalov - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:1 ✺
12.02.26	Denis Shapovalov - Aleksandar Kovacevic	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 L?LWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Miami
23.03.24	Denis Shapovalov - Stefanos Tsitsipas	2:0
ATP Barcelona
20.04.23	Denis Shapovalov - Stefanos Tsitsipas	0:2
ATP Cup
02.01.20	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Denis Shapovalov	0:2
ATP Miami
26.03.19	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Denis Shapovalov	1:2
ATP Monte Carlo
16.04.18	Denis Shapovalov - Stefanos Tsitsipas	0:2
ATP Australian Open
14.01.18	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Denis Shapovalov	0:3

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