Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Dallas, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 13 February 2026, Friday


	Denis Shapovalov		Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

	1	2
	1.73	2.1	Watch
	1.75	2.05	Watch
	1.82	2.1
	1.73	2.11	Watch
	1.73	2.1
	1.82	2.02	Watch
	1.85	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↑ (1.61)	2.06 ↓ (2.35)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Denis Shapovalov
53.7%

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
46.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.4%

40.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.8%

40.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Denis Shapovalov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Denis Shapovalov's form might have worsened.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alejandro Davidovich Fokina's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Denis Shapovalov than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Denis Shapovalov, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
19.4%	0%	80.6%

Denis Shapovalov - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Predictions

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. Shapovalov will win (votes: 6 - 19.4%). Davidovich Fokina will win (votes: 25 - 80.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Davidovich Fokina: 66.7% – 94.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Alejandro Davidovich Fokina will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Shapovalov is ranked ATP: 40. Davidovich Fokina is ranked ATP: 14.

In recent matches, Shapovalov has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Davidovich Fokina is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Davidovich Fokina may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Shapovalov won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Denis Shapovalov - the odds 1.61 are the expected chance of winning is 59.42%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Denis Shapovalov
ATP Dallas
12.02.26	Denis Shapovalov - Aleksandar Kovacevic	2:0 ✺
10.02.26	Denis Shapovalov - Rafael Jodar	2:0 ✺
ATP Australian Open
22.01.26	Denis Shapovalov - Marin Cilic	0:3 ✺
19.01.26	Denis Shapovalov - Bu Yunchaokete	3:0 ✺
ATP Brisbane
05.01.26	Denis Shapovalov - Raphael Collignon	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWLWL
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
ATP Dallas
11.02.26	Alex Michelsen - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	0:2 ✺
09.02.26	Zachary Svajda - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	0:2 ✺
ATP Australian Open
22.01.26	Tommy Paul - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	Davidovich Fokina A. retired ✺
20.01.26	Reilly Opelka - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:3 ✺
18.01.26	Filip Misolic - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WW?WW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Acapulco
28.02.25	Denis Shapovalov - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	0:2
ATP Indian Wells
12.03.22	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Denis Shapovalov	1:2

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