Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday


	Toby Samuel		Zsombor Piros

	1	2
			Watch
	2.04	1.7	Watch
	2.13	1.79
	2.07	1.72	Watch
	2.1	1.67	Watch
	2.01	1.7	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↓ (2.39)	1.72 ↑ (1.5)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toby Samuel
45.3%

Zsombor Piros
54.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.6%

61.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.4%

68.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toby Samuel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Toby Samuel's performance.

Zsombor Piros has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Zsombor Piros might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toby Samuel than the current prediction. (-13.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Toby Samuel that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zsombor Piros than the current prediction. (+13.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Zsombor Piros could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Toby Samuel - Zsombor Piros Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Samuel will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Piros will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Piros (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Samuel is ranked ATP: 169. Piros is ranked ATP: 161.

Samuel is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Piros has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Samuel may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Piros will hold a modest advantage in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Zsombor Piros - the odds 1.5 are the expected chance of winning is 61.44%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toby Samuel
ATP Challenger
10.04.26	Joel Schwaerzler - Toby Samuel	0:2 ✺
09.04.26	Stefanos Sakellaridis - Toby Samuel	1:2 ✺
07.04.26	Daniel Rincon - Toby Samuel	1:2 ✺
03.04.26	Lukas Neumayer - Toby Samuel	2:0 ✺
30.03.26	Sumit Nagal - Toby Samuel	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WWWLW
- Zsombor Piros
ATP Challenger
10.04.26	Alejandro Moro Canas - Zsombor Piros	1:2 ✺
08.04.26	Calvin Hemery - Zsombor Piros	0:2 ✺
07.04.26	Abedallah Shelbayh - Zsombor Piros	1:2 ✺
06.04.26	George Loffhagen - Zsombor Piros	Canceled ✺
22.03.26	Zsombor Piros - Lorenzo Carboni	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WWW?L

Toby Samuel - Zsombor Piros: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide