Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 10 April 2026, Friday


	Joel Schwaerzler		Toby Samuel

	1	2
			Watch
	1.74	1.98	Watch
	1.81	2.1
	1.72	2	Watch
	1.67	2.1	Watch
	1.73	1.97	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↓ (1.84)	2.03 ↑ (1.84)

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Joel Schwaerzler
53.9%

Toby Samuel
46.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.1%

45.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Joel Schwaerzler has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Toby Samuel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Joel Schwaerzler than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toby Samuel than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	0%	28.6%

Joel Schwaerzler - Toby Samuel Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Schwaerzler will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Samuel will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Schwaerzler (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Schwaerzler is ranked ATP: 174. Samuel is ranked ATP: 169.

Recent performances by Schwaerzler have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Samuel is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Schwaerzler may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

We predict that Samuel will win today's game, with odds of 1.79.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Joel Schwaerzler - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Toby Samuel - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Joel Schwaerzler
ATP Challenger
09.04.26	Joel Schwaerzler - Roman Safiullin	2:0 ✺
07.04.26	Edas Butvilas - Joel Schwaerzler	1:2 ✺
07.04.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Joel Schwaerzler	Canceled ✺
ATP Bucharest
31.03.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Joel Schwaerzler	2:0 ✺
30.03.26	Stefan Horia Haita - Joel Schwaerzler	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WW?LW
- Toby Samuel
ATP Challenger
09.04.26	Stefanos Sakellaridis - Toby Samuel	1:2 ✺
07.04.26	Daniel Rincon - Toby Samuel	1:2 ✺
03.04.26	Lukas Neumayer - Toby Samuel	2:0 ✺
30.03.26	Sumit Nagal - Toby Samuel	0:2 ✺
15.03.26	Maxim Mrva - Toby Samuel	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WWLWW

Joel Schwaerzler - Toby Samuel: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide