Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Indian Wells, hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 6 March 2026, Friday


	Tomas Martin Etcheverry		Denis Shapovalov

	1	2
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	2.7	1.48	Watch
	2.72	1.51
	2.61	1.49	Watch
	2.6	1.5	Watch
	2.7	1.51	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.68 ↑ (2.58)	1.49 (1.49)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tomas Martin Etcheverry
35.7%

Denis Shapovalov
64.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.6%

63.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.6%

65.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tomas Martin Etcheverry has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Denis Shapovalov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tomas Martin Etcheverry than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Denis Shapovalov than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	0%	71.4%

Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Denis Shapovalov Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Etcheverry will win (votes: 6 - 31.6%). Shapovalov will win (votes: 13 - 68.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Shapovalov: 47.5% – 89.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +3 Games - Etcheverry (1.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Etcheverry (1.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Denis Shapovalov will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Etcheverry (votes: 2 - 25%). Shapovalov (votes: 6 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Etcheverry is ranked ATP: 31. Shapovalov is ranked ATP: 39.

Etcheverry is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Shapovalov's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Shapovalov may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Shapovalov might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Etcheverry won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Denis Shapovalov - the odds 1.49 are the expected chance of winning is 63.39%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tomas Martin Etcheverry
ATP Santiago
24.02.26	Matias Soto - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	Canceled ✺
ATP Rio de Janeiro
22.02.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	1:2 ✺
22.02.26	Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Vit Kopriva	2:1 ✺
20.02.26	Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Jaime Faria	2:0 ✺
19.02.26	Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Vilius Gaubas	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 ?WWWW
- Denis Shapovalov
ATP Indian Wells
04.03.26	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Denis Shapovalov	1:2 ✺
ATP Dubai
24.02.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Denis Shapovalov	2:0 ✺
23.02.26	Tomas Machac - Denis Shapovalov	Canceled ✺
ATP Dallas
14.02.26	Denis Shapovalov - Ben Shelton	1:2 ✺
13.02.26	Denis Shapovalov - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WL?LW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Madrid
26.04.24	Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Denis Shapovalov	0:2

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