Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Lyon, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Lyon 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Denmark	14:00	TV2 Play
Finland	15:00	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 3
Sweden	14:00	TV4 Play
United Kingdom	13:00	Sky Sports Tennis


	Tommy Paul		Taylor Harry Fritz

	1	2
	2.5	1.53	Watch
	2.40	1.55
	2.48	1.52
	2.54	1.54	Watch
	2.6	1.53
	2.48	1.54	Watch
	2.45	1.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↑ (2.47)	1.53 ↓ (1.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.50

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tommy Paul
38.1%

Taylor Harry Fritz
61.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

38.4%

61.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.5%

63.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tommy Paul has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Taylor Harry Fritz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tommy Paul than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Taylor Harry Fritz than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Tommy Paul - Taylor Harry Fritz Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Fritz will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Fritz (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Paul is ranked ATP: 15., and Fritz is ranked ATP: 14..

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paul won 3.

Paul is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Performances by Fritz have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Paul may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Fritz holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 9 head-to-head meetings, Paul has recorded 6 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 10:8 (averaging 1.1:0.9 goals per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Taylor Harry Fritz - the odds 1.54 are the expected chance of winning is 61.62%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tommy Paul
ATP Lyon
23.10.26	Corentin Moutet - Tommy Paul	1:2 ✺
21.10.26	Benjamin Bonzi - Tommy Paul	1:2 ✺
ATP Shanghai
16.10.26	Daniil Medvedev - Tommy Paul	2:1 ✺
14.10.26	Tommy Paul - Zizou Bergs	2:0 ✺
12.10.26	Tommy Paul - Valentin Vacherot	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWLWW
- Taylor Harry Fritz
ATP Lyon
23.10.26	Daniel Altmaier - Taylor Harry Fritz	0:2 ✺
22.10.26	Pierre-Hugues Herbert - Taylor Harry Fritz	0:2 ✺
ATP Shanghai
12.10.26	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Taylor Harry Fritz	2:1 ✺
10.10.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Taylor Harry Fritz	0:2 ✺
ATP Tokyo
30.09.26	Taylor Harry Fritz - Jaume Munar	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Delray Beach
20.02.26	Taylor Harry Fritz - Tommy Paul	0:2
19.02.24	Taylor Harry Fritz - Tommy Paul	2:0
ATP Acapulco
03.03.23	Tommy Paul - Taylor Harry Fritz	2:1
ATP Miami
28.03.22	Taylor Harry Fritz - Tommy Paul	2:0
ATP Stockholm
10.11.21	Tommy Paul - Taylor Harry Fritz	2:0
ATP St Petersburg
28.10.21	Taylor Harry Fritz - Tommy Paul	2:0
ATP Challenger
16.11.17	Tommy Paul - Taylor Harry Fritz	Paul T. retired

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