Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Bonn, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 8 August 2025, Friday


	Vilius Gaubas		Joel Schwaerzler

	1	2
	1.53	2.38	Watch
	1.53	2.35	Watch
	1.47	2.5	Watch
	1.57	2.52
	1.52	2.42	Watch
	1.57	2.25	Watch
			Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↑ (1.43)	2.4 ↓ (2.6)

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vilius Gaubas
61.1%

Joel Schwaerzler
38.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.5%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.8%

34.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vilius Gaubas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Joel Schwaerzler has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vilius Gaubas than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Joel Schwaerzler than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	0%	77.8%

Vilius Gaubas - Joel Schwaerzler Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Gaubas will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Schwaerzler will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Schwaerzler: 50.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Joel Schwaerzler will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Gaubas is ranked ATP: 149. Schwaerzler is ranked ATP: 354.

Gaubas is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Schwaerzler has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Gaubas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Gaubas will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Gaubas won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vilius Gaubas
ATP Challenger
07.08.25	Vilius Gaubas - Martin Krumich	2:1 ✺
05.08.25	Vilius Gaubas - Diego Dedura-Palomero	2:0 ✺
02.08.25	Olle Wallin - Vilius Gaubas	2:0 ✺
30.07.25	Joel Schwaerzler - Vilius Gaubas	0:2 ✺
29.07.25	Lautaro Midon - Vilius Gaubas	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWLWW
- Joel Schwaerzler
ATP Challenger
07.08.25	Joel Schwaerzler - Federico Coria	2:0 ✺
05.08.25	Joel Schwaerzler - Christoph Negritu	2:0 ✺
30.07.25	Joel Schwaerzler - Vilius Gaubas	0:2 ✺
29.07.25	Mariano Kestelboim - Joel Schwaerzler	1:2 ✺
ATP Kitzbuhel
21.07.25	Joel Schwaerzler - Marton Fucsovics	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
30.07.25	Joel Schwaerzler - Vilius Gaubas	0:2

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