Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 31 August 2026, Monday

Location: Arthur Ashe Stadium (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	HBO Max
Italy	Super Tennis


	Roman Safiullin		Carlos Alcaraz Garfia

	1	2
	5	1.17	Watch
	4.60	1.19
	4.69	1.18
	5.09	1.2
	4.4	1.2	Watch
	4.75	1.18
	5.05	1.18	Watch
	4.8	1.19
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.8 ↓ (8.4)	1.19 ↑ (1.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 36.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Roman Safiullin
19.8%

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
80.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

11.6%

88.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Roman Safiullin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Roman Safiullin's performance.

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Carlos Alcaraz Garfia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	0%	88.9%

Roman Safiullin - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Safiullin will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Alcaraz Garfia will win (votes: 8 - 88.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alcaraz Garfia: 68.4% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 Sets - over (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +2.5 Sets - Safiullin (1.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Safiullin (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:3

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Preview

Safiullin is ranked ATP: 103. Alcaraz Garfia is ranked ATP: 2.

Safiullin has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Safiullin may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Alcaraz Garfia is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Safiullin won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Roman Safiullin
ATP Winston-Salem
24.08.26	Roman Safiullin - Hugo Grenier	1:2 ✺
24.08.26	Roman Safiullin - Marton Fucsovics	Canceled ✺
ATP Challenger
21.08.26	Roman Safiullin - Hubert Hurkacz	0:2 ✺
20.08.26	Roman Safiullin - Stanislas Wawrinka	2:0 ✺
18.08.26	Roman Safiullin - Sebastian Ofner	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 L?LWW
- Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
ATP Barcelona
16.04.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Tomas Machac	Machac T. Walkover ✺
14.04.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Otto Virtanen	2:0 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
12.04.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Jannik Sinner	0:2 ✺
11.04.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Valentin Vacherot	2:0 ✺
10.04.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Alexander Bublik	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 ?WLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Olympic Games
31.07.24	Roman Safiullin - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:2
ATP Paris
31.10.23	Roman Safiullin - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	2:0

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