Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Monte Carlo, clay - Final

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 1
Brazil	ESPN 2
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Czech-republic	Oneplay
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis


	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia		Jannik Sinner

	1	2
	2	1.8	Watch
	2	1.8	Watch
	2.02	1.89
	1.92	1.92	Watch
	1.95	1.85
	2.02	1.82	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↑ (1.76)	1.85 ↓ (2.1)

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
48.2%

Jannik Sinner
51.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.5%

45.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.2%

50.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Carlos Alcaraz Garfia's form might have worsened.

Jannik Sinner has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Jannik Sinner's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlos Alcaraz Garfia than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jannik Sinner than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44%	0%	56%

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Jannik Sinner Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Alcaraz Garfia will win (votes: 10 - 43.5%). Sinner will win (votes: 13 - 56.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sinner: 36.2% – 76.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Alcaraz Garfia (votes: 1 - 50%). Sinner (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

#ad

Preview

Alcaraz Garfia is ranked ATP: 1. Sinner is ranked ATP: 2.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alcaraz Garfia won 2.

Alcaraz Garfia is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Sinner is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Alcaraz Garfia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Alcaraz Garfia won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 31:28. (average 1.6:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
ATP Monte Carlo
11.04.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Valentin Vacherot	2:0 ✺
10.04.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Alexander Bublik	2:0 ✺
09.04.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	2:0 ✺
07.04.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
ATP Miami
22.03.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Sebastian Korda	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WWWWL
- Jannik Sinner
ATP Monte Carlo
11.04.26	Alexander Zverev - Jannik Sinner	0:2 ✺
10.04.26	Felix Aliassime-Auger - Jannik Sinner	0:2 ✺
09.04.26	Tomas Machac - Jannik Sinner	1:2 ✺
07.04.26	Ugo Humbert - Jannik Sinner	0:2 ✺
ATP Miami
29.03.26	Jiri Lehecka - Jannik Sinner	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Exhibition Others Matches Tennis Men
10.01.26	Jannik Sinner - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:2
ATP World Tour Finals
16.11.25	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Jannik Sinner	0:2
Exhibition Six Kings Slam Men
18.10.25	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Jannik Sinner	0:2
ATP US Open
07.09.25	Jannik Sinner - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	1:3
ATP Cincinnati
18.08.25	Jannik Sinner - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	Sinner J. retired
ATP Wimbledon
13.07.25	Jannik Sinner - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	3:1
ATP Roland Garros
08.06.25	Jannik Sinner - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	2:3

Upcoming Matches