Match Info

USA: NFL - ROUND 8

Date: 30 October 2022, Sunday

Location: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)


	Indianapolis Colts		Washington Commanders

	1	2
	1.66	2.3	Watch
	1.7	2.2
	1.68	2.3
	1.66	2.24
	1.69	2.3
	1.67	2.3	Watch
	1.72	2.16
	1.6	2.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↑ (1.38)	2.25 ↓ (3.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 40.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Network on TV: FOX

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Current Win Probability

Indianapolis Colts
57.3%

Washington Commanders
42.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.8%

31.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.2%

34.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Indianapolis Colts has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Indianapolis Colts's form might have worsened.

Washington Commanders has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Washington Commanders's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Indianapolis Colts than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Indianapolis Colts, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Washington Commanders than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Washington Commanders, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	0%	55.6%

Indianapolis Colts - Washington Commanders Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Indianapolis will win (votes: 12 - 44.4%). Washington will win (votes: 15 - 55.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Washington: 36.9% – 74.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 22:19

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Preview

Let's enjoy game between two mid-table teams (ranked 9 and 12).

Indianapolis has a small chance of recordsim. record (7-9-1), has currently - 3-3-1, has a chance of playoffs (22%), has a small chance of win division (13%), has a very small chance of 1st-round bye (<0.1%), has a very small chance of win league (0.1%).

Washington has a small chance of recordsim. record (7-10), has currently - 3-4, has a small chance of playoffs (14%), has a very small chance of win division (0.1%), has a very small chance of 1st-round bye (<0.1%), has a very small chance of win league (0.2%).

This event has small quality 10, importance 47, small match rating 29. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Washington could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Indianapolis will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Indianapolis won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 87-66.

Including matches at home between the teams Indianapolis won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 49-27.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Indianapolis Colts
NFL
23.10.22	Tennessee Titans - Indianapolis Colts	19:10 ✺
16.10.22	Indianapolis Colts - Jacksonville Jaguars	34:27 ✺
06.10.22	Denver Broncos - Indianapolis Colts	9:12 OT ✺
02.10.22	Indianapolis Colts - Tennessee Titans	17:24 ✺
25.09.22	Indianapolis Colts - Kansas City Chiefs	20:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LWWLW
- Washington Commanders
NFL
23.10.22	Washington Commanders - Green Bay Packers	23:21 ✺
13.10.22	Chicago Bears - Washington Commanders	7:12 ✺
09.10.22	Washington Commanders - Tennessee Titans	17:21 ✺
02.10.22	Dallas Cowboys - Washington Commanders	25:10 ✺
25.09.22	Washington Commanders - Philadelphia Eagles	8:24 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

NFL
16.09.18	Washington Commanders - Indianapolis Colts	9:21
30.11.14	Indianapolis Colts - Washington Commanders	49:27
25.08.12	Washington Commanders - Indianapolis Colts	30:17

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