Match Info

AFL - Round 18

Date: 12 July 2026, Sunday

Location: The Gabba (Brisbane)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL TV
New-zealand	Sky Sport 6
United-kingdom	HBO Max, TNT Sports 1


	Brisbane Lions		Essendon Bombers

	1	X	2
	1.01		21
	1.01		9
				Watch
	1.03	101.00	11.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.02 ↓ (1.04)	33.67	13.67 ↑ (11)

The most likely Over/Under: 186.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-64)

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brisbane Lions
90.5%

Draw
2.7%

Essendon Bombers
6.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

91.4%

8.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brisbane Lions has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Essendon Bombers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Brisbane Lions - Essendon Bombers Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +60.5 Points, OT - Essendon (1.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Essendon (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 125:61

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (36 - 3)
00:18, McKenna C. (Behind),
01:48, Cameron C. (G),
07:38, (Behind Rushed),
10:56, Hipwood E. (Behind),
12:13, Morris L. (Behind),
15:28, Lohmann K. (G),
17:49, (Behind Rushed),
19:19, Lohmann K. (G),
20:41, Ashcroft W. (G),
21:50, (Behind Rushed),
22:16, McCluggage H. (G),
24:15, (Behind Rushed),
26:50, Kondogiannis M. (Behind),
29:17, Perkins A. (Behind),
2nd Quarter (28 - 9)
01:09, Morris L. (Behind),
03:35, Ashcroft L. (G),
06:53, McKenna C. (G),
09:19, (Behind Rushed),
10:47, Cameron C. (Behind),
16:20, (Behind Rushed),
18:54, Wright P. (Behind),
20:37, Lohmann K. (G),
22:49, Ashcroft W. (Behind),
24:36, Wright P. (G),
26:38, Wright P. (Behind),
29:42, Bailey Z. (G),
3rd Quarter (46 - 3)
01:15, Hipwood E. (G),
02:51, Morris L. (G),
03:58, Caddy N. (Behind),
05:53, Draper S. (G),
07:40, Hipwood E. (G),
11:43, Dunkley J. (G),
14:17, Lohmann K. (Behind),
17:07, Morris L. (Behind),
19:14, (Behind Rushed),
19:58, McKenna C. (Behind),
22:15, Morris L. (G),
25:06, Day-Wicks A. (Behind),
26:44, Ashcroft W. (Behind),
28:17, Ashcroft L. (G),
4th Quarter (39 - 44)
01:20, Wright P. (G),
03:28, Wright P. (Behind),
04:44, McGrath A. (G),
06:10, Cameron C. (G),
08:30, Kako I. (G),
10:13, Caddy N. (G),
12:12, Bailey Z. (G),
14:22, Wright P. (Behind),
15:30, Reville B. (Behind),
16:33, Wright P. (G),
18:35, Durham S. (G),
20:35, McKenna C. (G),
24:27, Morris L. (Behind),
26:37, Draper S. (G),
28:21, Caddy N. (G),
30:14, Ashcroft W. (G),
31:39, Ashcroft W. (G),
34:00, Neale L. (Behind),

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: ) and 18).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brisbane won 4.

Brisbane is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Essendon is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Essendon may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Brisbane is the clear favorite.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Brisbane won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 1447:1278. (average 85.1:75.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Brisbane won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 659:589. (average 82.4:73.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brisbane Lions
AFL
02.07.26	Geelong Cats - Brisbane Lions	101:123 ✺
25.06.26	Brisbane Lions - Sydney Swans	126:83 ✺
13.06.26	Richmond Tigers - Brisbane Lions	80:115 ✺
06.06.26	Gold Coast Suns - Brisbane Lions	75:106 ✺
30.05.26	Brisbane Lions - Fremantle Dockers	78:103 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WWWWL
- Essendon Bombers
AFL
05.07.26	Essendon Bombers - St Kilda Saints	50:117 ✺
28.06.26	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Essendon Bombers	79:65 ✺
12.06.26	Melbourne Demons - Essendon Bombers	95:50 ✺
07.06.26	Essendon Bombers - Carlton Blues	67:72 ✺
31.05.26	West Coast Eagles - Essendon Bombers	85:55 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

AFL
01.05.26	Essendon Bombers - Brisbane Lions	79:143
29.05.25	Brisbane Lions - Essendon Bombers	90:72
24.08.24	Brisbane Lions - Essendon Bombers	87:67
13.05.23	Brisbane Lions - Essendon Bombers	87:45
09.07.22	Brisbane Lions - Essendon Bombers	90:100
26.03.22	Essendon Bombers - Brisbane Lions	75:97
17.04.21	Brisbane Lions - Essendon Bombers	102:45

Brisbane Lions - Essendon Bombers: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide