Match Info

AFL - Round 16

Date: 25 June 2026, Thursday

Location: The Gabba (Brisbane)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL TV, Fox Footy
Usa	FOX Sports 2


	Brisbane Lions		Sydney Swans

	1	X	2
	1.87		1.95
	1.80	100.00	1.90
				Watch
	1.75	71.00	1.91
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (1.87)	57	1.92 ↓ (1.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 180.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brisbane Lions
50.7%

Draw
1.6%

Sydney Swans
47.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

51%

49%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.3%

50.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brisbane Lions has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Sydney Swans has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brisbane Lions than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sydney Swans than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Brisbane Lions - Sydney Swans Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Sydney will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 91:89

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (25 - 15)
07:13, Cleary C. (Behind),
14:13, Cameron C. (G),
16:07, Rayner C. (G),
19:05, Cleary C. (Behind),
21:49, Wicks S. (Behind),
22:25, Lohmann K. (Behind),
23:27, Morris L. (G),
25:44, Warner C. (G),
28:51, Berry J. (G),
30:36, Rowbottom J. (G),
2nd Quarter (30 - 13)
01:39, Curnow C. (G),
03:39, Hipwood E. (G),
06:15, Hipwood E. (Behind),
06:47, McKenna C. (Behind),
08:32, (Behind Rushed),
09:40, Morris L. (G),
10:54, Lohmann K. (Behind),
11:28, Neale L. (Behind),
13:46, Bailey Z. (G),
23:07, Curnow C. (G),
25:39, Bailey Z. (Behind),
26:32, Ashcroft L. (G),
28:12, Gulden E. (Behind),
3rd Quarter (38 - 23)
01:38, Amartey J. (Behind),
02:13, Warner C. (G),
04:47, Rayner C. (G),
05:57, Cameron C. (Behind),
07:25, Warner C. (G),
09:18, McKenna C. (Behind),
10:25, Cameron C. (G),
15:11, McKenna C. (G),
17:10, Fort D. (G),
18:24, (Behind Rushed),
19:23, Hamling J. (Behind),
23:36, Rayner C. (G),
26:02, Rowbottom J. (G),
28:11, Amartey J. (Behind),
31:16, Draper S. (G),
33:21, Warner C. (Behind),
4th Quarter (33 - 32)
01:18, (Behind Rushed),
02:37, Curnow C. (G),
04:18, Heeney I. (Behind),
05:45, McDonald L. (G),
09:35, Lohmann K. (G),
12:50, Lohmann K. (G),
14:19, Ashcroft W. (Behind),
14:52, Ashcroft L. (Behind),
17:06, Warner C. (G),
19:47, Morris L. (G),
20:55, Bailey Z. (G),
23:27, Sheldrick A. (G),
25:57, Heeney I. (G),
29:14, Ashcroft W. (Behind),
31:58, McKenna C. (G),

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brisbane won 3.

Brisbane has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Sydney is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

We predict that Sydney will win today's game, with odds of 1.77.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Brisbane won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 1483:1629. (average 74.2:81.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Brisbane won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 739:908. (average 73.9:90.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brisbane Lions
AFL
13.06.26	Richmond Tigers - Brisbane Lions	80:115 ✺
06.06.26	Gold Coast Suns - Brisbane Lions	75:106 ✺
30.05.26	Brisbane Lions - Fremantle Dockers	78:103 ✺
23.05.26	Greater Western Sydney Giants - Brisbane Lions	166:88 ✺
14.05.26	Brisbane Lions - Geelong Cats	76:117 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WWLLL
- Sydney Swans
AFL
13.06.26	Port Adelaide Power - Sydney Swans	90:93 ✺
07.06.26	Sydney Swans - St Kilda Saints	104:102 ✺
29.05.26	Sydney Swans - Richmond Tigers	170:56 ✺
23.05.26	Geelong Cats - Sydney Swans	107:80 ✺
15.05.26	Sydney Swans - Collingwood Magpies	81:75 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

AFL
14.03.26	Sydney Swans - Brisbane Lions	104:60
09.08.25	Brisbane Lions - Sydney Swans	90:92
15.03.25	Sydney Swans - Brisbane Lions	82:86
28.09.24	Sydney Swans - Brisbane Lions	60:120
20.07.24	Brisbane Lions - Sydney Swans	79:77
AAMI Community Series
29.02.24	Sydney Swans - Brisbane Lions	56:81
AFL
16.06.23	Brisbane Lions - Sydney Swans	97:81

Brisbane Lions - Sydney Swans: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide