Match Info

AFL - Round 16

Date: 28 June 2026, Sunday

Location: Marvel Stadium (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL TV
United-kingdom	TNT Sports Extra
Usa	Fox Soccer Plus


	North Melbourne Kangaroos		Essendon Bombers

	1	X	2
	1.47		2.7
	1.48	75.00	2.55
				Watch
	1.40	81.00	2.62
	1.48	90.00	2.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↑ (1.42)	61.5	2.62 ↓ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 174.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-14)

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

North Melbourne Kangaroos
63.3%

Draw
1.5%

Essendon Bombers
35.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

67.1%

32.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.7%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

North Melbourne Kangaroos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Essendon Bombers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for North Melbourne Kangaroos than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Essendon Bombers than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

North Melbourne Kangaroos - Essendon Bombers Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. North Melbourne will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 94:80

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (18 - 14)
01:14, Davies-Uniacke L. (G),
02:48, Larkey N. (Behind),
04:12, Durham S. (G),
07:43, Larkey N. (Behind),
12:47, Trembath C. (Behind),
14:27, McKay B. (G),
16:15, McKay B. (Behind),
17:09, Parish D. (Behind),
19:12, Stephens D. (Behind),
22:21, Wardlaw G. (Behind),
24:08, Simpkin J. (G),
28:12, Duursma Z. (Behind),
2nd Quarter (21 - 16)
05:14, Konstanty J. (G),
07:48, Larkey N. (Behind),
08:49, Durham S. (G),
10:27, Robey S. (G),
14:17, Perkins A. (Behind),
15:22, (Behind Rushed),
16:20, Perkins A. (Behind),
17:33, Konstanty J. (G),
21:20, Darling J. (G),
26:48, Stephens D. (Behind),
28:46, Caddy N. (Behind),
30:44, (Behind Rushed),
3rd Quarter (24 - 8)
02:00, Darling J. (G),
04:40, Simpkin J. (Behind),
05:53, Trembath C. (G),
09:54, Spargo C. (G),
11:54, Larkey N. (Behind),
15:51, Dawson W. (Behind),
17:34, El Achkar H. (G),
18:48, (Behind Rushed),
21:55, (Behind Rushed),
23:06, Trembath C. (Behind),
24:54, (Behind Rushed),
27:00, Perkins A. (Behind),
4th Quarter (16 - 27)
00:20, (Behind Rushed),
00:59, (Behind Rushed),
02:35, (Behind Rushed),
05:02, Caddy N. (G),
07:13, Larkey N. (G),
10:18, Larkey N. (Behind),
10:29, Konstanty J. (Behind),
11:24, Sheezel H. (Behind),
15:59, El Achkar H. (G),
17:42, Merrett Z. (G),
20:10, Perkins A. (Behind),
21:58, Spargo C. (G),
27:07, Caddy N. (G),

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 12 and 18).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, North Melbourne won 1.

Recent performances by North Melbourne have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Essendon is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

North Melbourne may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

North Melbourne is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, North Melbourne won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 1527:1764. (average 76.4:88.2).

Including home matches between the teams, North Melbourne won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 455:542. (average 75.8:90.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- North Melbourne Kangaroos
AFL
20.06.26	Richmond Tigers - North Melbourne Kangaroos	48:73 ✺
13.06.26	North Melbourne Kangaroos - West Coast Eagles	74:73 ✺
06.06.26	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Fremantle Dockers	31:155 ✺
22.05.26	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Gold Coast Suns	111:105 ✺
15.05.26	Adelaide Crows - North Melbourne Kangaroos	133:65 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WWLWL
- Essendon Bombers
AFL
12.06.26	Melbourne Demons - Essendon Bombers	95:50 ✺
07.06.26	Essendon Bombers - Carlton Blues	67:72 ✺
31.05.26	West Coast Eagles - Essendon Bombers	85:55 ✺
22.05.26	Richmond Tigers - Essendon Bombers	74:56 ✺
16.05.26	Essendon Bombers - Fremantle Dockers	61:104 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

AFL
28.03.26	Essendon Bombers - North Melbourne Kangaroos	69:81
01.05.25	Essendon Bombers - North Melbourne Kangaroos	65:62
18.05.24	Essendon Bombers - North Melbourne Kangaroos	106:66
11.08.23	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Essendon Bombers	77:86
04.06.23	Essendon Bombers - North Melbourne Kangaroos	105:99
31.07.22	Essendon Bombers - North Melbourne Kangaroos	114:66
17.07.21	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Essendon Bombers	74:92

North Melbourne Kangaroos - Essendon Bombers: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide