Match Info

AFL - Round 11

Date: 23 May 2025, Friday

Location: Marvel Stadium (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL, Fox Footy
United-kingdom	TNT Sports 2


	Carlton Blues		Greater Western Sydney Giants

	1	2
	1.6	2.4
	1.62	2.14
	1.7	2.1
	1.62	2.2
	1.69	2.18
	1.62	2.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↓ (1.88)	2.19 ↑ (1.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 170.00

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlton Blues
57.2%

Greater Western Sydney Giants
42.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

50.8%

49.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.4%

52.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlton Blues has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Carlton Blues's performance.

Greater Western Sydney Giants has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Greater Western Sydney Giants might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlton Blues than the current prediction. (-9.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Carlton Blues that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Greater Western Sydney Giants than the current prediction. (+9.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Greater Western Sydney Giants could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Carlton Blues - Greater Western Sydney Giants Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. GWS (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 86:86

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (31 - 32)
03:30, Greene T. (Behind),
04:31, Jones D. (Behind),
06:48, Curnow C. (G),
08:52, Cripps P. (G),
10:39, Curnow C. (Behind),
14:28, Greene T. (G),
17:12, Hollands O. (G),
19:37, Brown C. (G),
21:48, Brown C. (G),
23:26, Fogarty L. (G),
25:52, Riccardi J. (G),
29:29, Curnow C. (G),
32:20, Greene T. (G),
2nd Quarter (11 - 20)
00:25, O'Halloran X. (Behind),
03:07, Hogan J. (G),
05:33, Curnow C. (Behind),
07:33, Cripps P. (Behind),
10:09, White W. (G),
12:35, McKay H. (Behind),
14:35, Hollands O. (Behind),
15:34, Curnow C. (Behind),
20:39, (Behind Rushed),
22:43, Brown C. (G),
26:54, Riccardi J. (G),
3rd Quarter (21 - 25)
02:13, Ward C. (Behind),
03:33, Hogan J. (G),
06:24, Docherty S. (G),
09:16, McGovern M. (Behind),
10:36, White W. (Behind),
15:20, Curnow C. (G),
18:32, Ward C. (G),
23:09, Hogan J. (G),
28:22, Fogarty L. (Behind),
29:55, Motlop J. (G),
31:33, Riccardi J. (G),
4th Quarter (19 - 33)
00:26, Lord C. (G),
03:01, Greene T. (Behind),
04:35, Briggs K. (G),
08:01, (Behind Rushed),
10:42, Cerra A. (Behind),
12:42, Cadman A. (G),
14:49, Cerra A. (G),
15:52, Fogarty L. (G),
17:03, Cadman A. (G),
19:43, Hogan J. (G),
24:11, Greene T. (G),
26:55, Greene T. (Behind),

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 11 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Carlton won 3.

Recent performances by Carlton have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

GWS is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Carlton may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Carlton has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Carlton won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 1476:1756. (average 77.7:92.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Carlton won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 677:756. (average 84.6:94.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlton Blues
AFL
16.05.25	Sydney Swans - Carlton Blues	78:62 ✺
09.05.25	St Kilda Saints - Carlton Blues	62:77 ✺
03.05.25	Adelaide Crows - Carlton Blues	110:50 ✺
27.04.25	Carlton Blues - Geelong Cats	94:76 ✺
18.04.25	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Carlton Blues	71:153 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LWLWW
- Greater Western Sydney Giants
AFL
17.05.25	Greater Western Sydney Giants - Fremantle Dockers	61:95 ✺
11.05.25	Geelong Cats - Greater Western Sydney Giants	101:105 ✺
03.05.25	Sydney Swans - Greater Western Sydney Giants	87:73 ✺
26.04.25	Greater Western Sydney Giants - Western Bulldogs	81:113 ✺
19.04.25	Adelaide Crows - Greater Western Sydney Giants	52:34 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

AAMI Community Series
28.02.25	Greater Western Sydney Giants - Carlton Blues	66:124
AFL
06.07.24	Greater Western Sydney Giants - Carlton Blues	116:104
20.04.24	Carlton Blues - Greater Western Sydney Giants	117:98
27.08.23	Carlton Blues - Greater Western Sydney Giants	73:105
01.04.23	Greater Western Sydney Giants - Carlton Blues	64:74
23.07.22	Carlton Blues - Greater Western Sydney Giants	90:54
15.05.22	Greater Western Sydney Giants - Carlton Blues	75:105

Carlton Blues - Greater Western Sydney Giants: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide