Match Info
AFL - Round 12Date: 29 May 2026, FridayLocation: Melbourne Cricket Ground (Melbourne)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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 Australia | AFL, Fox Footy |
 Usa | Fox Soccer Plus, FOX Sports 2 |
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Carlton Blues |
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Geelong Cats |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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 |
4.2 |
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1.23 |
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3.7 |
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1.22 |
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 Watch |
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3.45 |
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1.27 |
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Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.78 ↑
(3.6) |
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1.24 ↓
(1.3) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 176.50
- The most likely Handicap: 2 (-26)
- The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Carlton Blues
24.7% | Geelong Cats
75.3% |
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML EstimationAnalysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:Carlton Blues has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)Geelong Cats has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlton Blues than the current prediction. (+4.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Geelong Cats than the current prediction. (-4.1%)Carlton Blues - Geelong Cats Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 75:101 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Quarter (9 - 28)
- 00:50, (Behind Rushed),
- 03:55, Florent O. (Behind),
- 06:48, Cameron J. (Behind),
- 08:12, Hayward W. (G),
- 11:15, Mannagh S. (Behind),
- 14:25, Dempsey O. (G),
- 17:44, Henry J. (G),
- 19:48, Cameron J. (G),
- 21:27, Ainsworth B. (Behind),
- 22:12, (Behind Rushed),
- 24:43, Dempsey O. (G),
- 27:27, Walsh S. (Behind),
- 2nd Quarter (30 - 16)
- 01:08, Henry O. (Behind),
- 02:33, McGovern M. (Behind),
- 03:10, Young F. (G),
- 04:56, Ison J. (G),
- 06:44, Cameron J. (G),
- 07:55, (Behind Rushed),
- 09:56, Cameron J. (Behind),
- 10:50, (Behind Rushed),
- 11:44, Henry O. (G),
- 14:17, Acres B. (Behind),
- 14:51, Walsh S. (Behind),
- 15:45, Young F. (G),
- 17:58, Young F. (Behind),
- 21:15, McKay H. (Behind),
- 24:26, Neale S. (Behind),
- 27:24, Cerra A. (G),
- 3rd Quarter (26 - 20)
- 01:59, Hewett G. (G),
- 04:19, Ainsworth B. (Behind),
- 06:14, Henry O. (G),
- 08:12, McGovern M. (Behind),
- 09:50, Cameron J. (Behind),
- 11:54, Mannagh S. (G),
- 13:14, Byrne T. (G),
- 15:05, Kemp B. (G),
- 16:16, Hayward W. (G),
- 17:49, Henry J. (Behind),
- 24:54, Cameron J. (G),
- 4th Quarter (23 - 20)
- 01:39, Holmes M. (Behind),
- 03:59, Hayward W. (G),
- 05:42, Dangerfield P. (G),
- 07:22, Kemp B. (G),
- 09:02, Hewett G. (Behind),
- 10:21, Hayward W. (Behind),
- 11:14, Cameron J. (G),
- 12:41, (Behind Rushed),
- 19:58, Walsh S. (Behind),
- 21:39, Close B. (Behind),
- 23:47, McKay H. (Behind),
- 27:57, Henry J. (G),
- 30:30, Cripps P. (G),
Preview
This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 15 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: )).In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Carlton won 3.In recent matches, Carlton has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).Geelong is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).Geelong may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times. In this match, Geelong is the team to beat.In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Carlton won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 1309:1552. (average 77:91.3).Including home matches between the teams, Carlton won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 751:789. (average 75.1:78.9).
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| AFL | | | 27.04.25 | Carlton Blues - Geelong Cats | 94:76 | | 21.06.24 | Carlton Blues - Geelong Cats | 138:75 | | 27.04.24 | Geelong Cats - Carlton Blues | 118:105 | | 23.03.23 | Carlton Blues - Geelong Cats | 90:82 | | 16.07.22 | Carlton Blues - Geelong Cats | 55:85 | | 10.07.21 | Carlton Blues - Geelong Cats | 44:70 | | 20.06.20 | Geelong Cats - Carlton Blues | 77:79 |
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