Match Info

AFL - Round 22

Date: 9 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Marvel Stadium (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SupeSport ESPN 2
Australia	AFL TV, Fox Footy
Canada	fubo Sports Network
South-africa	SupeSport ESPN 2
United-kingdom	HBO Max, TNT Sports 4


	St Kilda Saints		Carlton Blues

	1	2
	1.93	1.89
	1.85	1.85
			Watch
	1.89	1.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↑ (1.62)	1.87 ↓ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 174.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-6)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St Kilda Saints
49.8%

Carlton Blues
50.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

58.7%

41.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.5%

46.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St Kilda Saints has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that St Kilda Saints's form might have worsened.

Carlton Blues has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Carlton Blues's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St Kilda Saints than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlton Blues than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

St Kilda Saints - Carlton Blues Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. St Kilda will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Carlton will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 84:90

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (8 - 21)
04:14, Owens M. (G),
07:35, Pittonet M. (G),
09:23, Kemp B. (Behind),
13:59, Byrnes R. (Behind),
14:59, Evans F. (G),
18:40, Evans F. (Behind),
20:30, McKay H. (G),
23:21, Cripps P. (Behind),
27:59, Owens M. (Behind),
2nd Quarter (20 - 32)
00:16, Higgins J. (G),
03:31, Pittonet M. (G),
09:02, Higgins J. (Behind),
10:45, Ryan L. (G),
12:22, Ainsworth B. (G),
15:20, McGovern M. (Behind),
20:04, Hewett G. (Behind),
21:24, Hayward W. (G),
24:42, Walsh S. (G),
25:57, (Behind Rushed),
28:45, Hayward W. (G),
30:34, Hall M. (G),
3rd Quarter (11 - 21)
00:54, Wilson D. (Behind),
02:08, O'Connell L. (Behind),
03:17, Sharman C. (Behind),
05:15, McKay H. (G),
07:52, Marshall R. (G),
10:48, McKay H. (G),
16:16, Higgins J. (Behind),
17:36, Hayward W. (Behind),
20:15, Higgins J. (Behind),
21:21, Young L. (Behind),
22:50, Kemp B. (G),
25:20, Young L. (Behind),
4th Quarter (23 - 32)
00:24, McGovern M. (G),
04:41, Hall M. (Behind),
05:34, Owens M. (Behind),
09:41, McGovern M. (G),
11:36, Higgins J. (Behind),
16:13, Cottrell M. (Behind),
17:13, Lake C. (G),
18:55, Kemp B. (Behind),
20:54, Kemp B. (G),
22:22, Owens M. (G),
24:04, Ainsworth B. (G),
25:43, Hall M. (Behind),
27:05, Hall M. (G),
29:33, Byrne T. (G),
31:17, Hall M. (Behind),

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 11 and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St Kilda won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

St Kilda may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

We predict that Carlton will win today's game, with odds of 1.68.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, St Kilda won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 1728:1569. (average 86.4:78.5).

Including home matches between the teams, St Kilda won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 726:735. (average 80.7:81.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- St Kilda Saints
AFL
31.07.26	St Kilda Saints - Sydney Swans	88:107 ✺
26.07.26	North Melbourne Kangaroos - St Kilda Saints	62:93 ✺
16.07.26	Geelong Cats - St Kilda Saints	102:75 ✺
10.07.26	St Kilda Saints - Port Adelaide Power	87:73 ✺
05.07.26	Essendon Bombers - St Kilda Saints	50:117 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LWLWW
- Carlton Blues
AFL
01.08.26	Carlton Blues - Brisbane Lions	154:78 ✺
24.07.26	Carlton Blues - Gold Coast Suns	110:97 ✺
18.07.26	Collingwood Magpies - Carlton Blues	90:69 ✺
11.07.26	Carlton Blues - Hawthorn Hawks	39:103 ✺
04.07.26	Richmond Tigers - Carlton Blues	72:74 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

AFL
02.05.26	Carlton Blues - St Kilda Saints	69:108
09.05.25	St Kilda Saints - Carlton Blues	62:77
25.08.24	Carlton Blues - St Kilda Saints	74:76
06.08.23	St Kilda Saints - Carlton Blues	54:73
23.04.23	Carlton Blues - St Kilda Saints	60:82
01.07.22	Carlton Blues - St Kilda Saints	78:93
30.07.21	St Kilda Saints - Carlton Blues	81:112

St Kilda Saints - Carlton Blues: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide