The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Collingwood Magpies 23.1%
Hawthorn Hawks 76.9%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
32.9%
67.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
37.1%
62.9%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Collingwood Magpies has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.8%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Collingwood Magpies's form might have worsened.
Hawthorn Hawks has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Hawthorn Hawks's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Collingwood Magpies than the current prediction. (+14%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Collingwood Magpies, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hawthorn Hawks than the current prediction. (-14%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Hawthorn Hawks, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Collingwood Magpies - Hawthorn Hawks Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 73:101
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Key Events of the Match
1st Quarter (30 - 13)
00:45, (Behind Rushed),
05:01, D'Ambrosio M. (G),
07:37, De Goey J. (G),
09:43, (Behind Rushed),
12:51, Lewis M. (Behind),
15:28, Hayes W. (G),
17:43, Lewis M. (Behind),
20:08, Schultz L. (G),
21:46, Newcombe J. (Behind),
23:02, Anderson A. (G),
24:35, Battle J. (Behind),
27:12, Gunston J. (Behind),
29:44, De Goey J. (G),
2nd Quarter (15 - 27)
00:35, Maynard B. (G),
02:59, Weddle J. (Behind),
05:16, McStay D. (Behind),
08:37, Ginnivan J. (G),
13:28, Buller J. (G),
16:00, Reeves N. (G),
20:20, Reeves N. (Behind),
21:59, Houston D. (Behind),
23:43, (Behind Rushed),
24:47, Watson N. (G),
26:15, Houston D. (Behind),
29:03, Newcombe J. (G),
3rd Quarter (30 - 37)
07:11, Elliott J. (G),
08:38, Hayes W. (G),
10:28, Watson N. (G),
11:35, Macdonald C. (G),
13:16, McStay D. (G),
15:17, Lewis M. (G),
16:27, Macdonald C. (G),
20:29, Newcombe J. (Behind),
22:54, Steene O. (G),
24:50, Daicos N. (G),
29:34, Lewis M. (G),
31:54, Dear C. (G),
4th Quarter (18 - 16)
02:05, Weddle J. (Behind),
06:20, Elliott J. (G),
08:41, (Behind Rushed),
10:48, Maginness F. (Behind),
13:33, Elliott J. (G),
21:00, Macdonald C. (G),
24:31, Sidebottom S. (G),
29:22, D'Ambrosio M. (Behind),
30:29, Moore D. (G),
Preview
Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Collingwood won 2.
In recent matches, Collingwood has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Hawthorn is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).
Recently, Hawthorn has had a series of home games.
In this match, Hawthorn is seen as the favorite.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Collingwood won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 1633:1911. (average 81.7:95.6).
Including home matches between the teams, Collingwood won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 686:666. (average 85.8:83.3).
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