What is the expert prediction for Hawthorn Hawks vs Western Bulldogs?

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Hawthorn Hawks vs Western Bulldogs Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Friday, June 05, 2026)

Match Info

AFL - Round 13

Date: 5 June 2026, Friday

Location: Melbourne Cricket Ground (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL, Fox Footy
United-kingdom	TNT Sports 3
Usa	Fox Soccer Plus, FOX Sports 2


	Hawthorn Hawks		Western Bulldogs

	1	X	2
	1.5		2.6
	1.50	100.00	2.45
				Watch
	1.44	81.00	2.50
	1.33		3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↑ (1.33)	45.25	2.65 ↓ (3.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 175.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-13)

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hawthorn Hawks
63.4%

Draw
2%

Western Bulldogs
34.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.6%

28.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.5%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hawthorn Hawks has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hawthorn Hawks's form might have worsened.

Western Bulldogs has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Western Bulldogs's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hawthorn Hawks than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Western Bulldogs than the current prediction. (-2%)

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Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 95:82

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (14 - 12)
03:15, Chol M. (Behind),
06:48, Dale B. (G),
08:05, Watson N. (G),
10:40, Hardwick B. (Behind),
11:28, Macdonald C. (G),
19:34, Croft J. (G),
2nd Quarter (40 - 15)
00:54, Watson N. (Behind),
02:53, Hardwick B. (Behind),
06:15, Reeves N. (G),
07:30, Jones A. (G),
08:38, West R. (G),
12:13, Watson N. (G),
13:50, Freijah J. (Behind),
14:47, Ginnivan J. (Behind),
16:17, Day W. (G),
18:02, West R. (Behind),
19:27, Richards E. (Behind),
20:50, Lewis M. (Behind),
21:57, Chol M. (G),
23:36, Watson N. (G),
25:03, Chol M. (G),
3rd Quarter (12 - 31)
01:18, Ginnivan J. (Behind),
03:39, Chol M. (Behind),
06:21, Croft J. (G),
08:28, Bontempelli M. (G),
10:21, West R. (Behind),
12:01, Treloar A. (G),
14:45, (Behind Rushed),
15:46, Ginnivan J. (Behind),
17:34, Chol M. (G),
20:03, Croft J. (G),
23:07, Lewis W. (G),
26:55, Lewis M. (Behind),
29:54, Watson N. (Behind),
4th Quarter (5 - 19)
03:12, Meek L. (Behind),
03:50, Macdonald C. (Behind),
04:46, English T. (G),
07:13, Bontempelli M. (G),
14:15, Naughton A. (G),
17:47, Moore D. (Behind),
21:14, Treloar A. (Behind),
25:26, (Behind Rushed),
27:01, Weddle J. (Behind),

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: ) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hawthorn won 4.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Hawthorn may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Hawthorn has had a series of away games.

In this match, Hawthorn is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Hawthorn won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 1690:1609. (average 84.5:80.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Hawthorn won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 971:929. (average 80.9:77.4).

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Standings

2026

		Pl	W	D	L		%%	Pts
3	Hawthorn Hawks	13	8	1	4	1248:1102	113.25	34
6	Western Bulldogs	13	8	0	5	1123:1187	94.61	32

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hawthorn Hawks
AFL
28.05.26	St Kilda Saints - Hawthorn Hawks	67:119 ✺
21.05.26	Hawthorn Hawks - Adelaide Crows	75:66 ✺
16.05.26	Melbourne Demons - Hawthorn Hawks	120:81 ✺
07.05.26	Fremantle Dockers - Hawthorn Hawks	88:73 ✺
30.04.26	Collingwood Magpies - Hawthorn Hawks	93:93 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 WWLLT
- Western Bulldogs
AFL
30.05.26	Western Bulldogs - Collingwood Magpies	97:93 ✺
24.05.26	Western Bulldogs - Melbourne Demons	93:90 ✺
16.05.26	Carlton Blues - Western Bulldogs	74:62 ✺
08.05.26	Port Adelaide Power - Western Bulldogs	72:74 ✺
01.05.26	Western Bulldogs - Fremantle Dockers	102:114 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

AFL
11.04.26	Hawthorn Hawks - Western Bulldogs	104:64
05.06.25	Western Bulldogs - Hawthorn Hawks	59:81
AAMI Community Series
27.02.25	Hawthorn Hawks - Western Bulldogs	66:77
AFL
06.09.24	Western Bulldogs - Hawthorn Hawks	62:99
05.05.24	Western Bulldogs - Hawthorn Hawks	91:98
AAMI Community Series
02.03.24	Hawthorn Hawks - Western Bulldogs	62:119
AFL
12.08.23	Hawthorn Hawks - Western Bulldogs	67:64

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