The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Hawthorn Hawks 63.4%
Draw 2%
Western Bulldogs 34.5%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
71.6%
28.4%
Our Initial ML Estimation
67.5%
32.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Hawthorn Hawks has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hawthorn Hawks's form might have worsened.
Western Bulldogs has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Western Bulldogs's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hawthorn Hawks than the current prediction. (+4.1%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Western Bulldogs than the current prediction. (-2%)
Hawthorn Hawks - Western Bulldogs Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 95:82
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Key Events of the Match
1st Quarter (14 - 12)
03:15, Chol M. (Behind),
06:48, Dale B. (G),
08:05, Watson N. (G),
10:40, Hardwick B. (Behind),
11:28, Macdonald C. (G),
19:34, Croft J. (G),
2nd Quarter (40 - 15)
00:54, Watson N. (Behind),
02:53, Hardwick B. (Behind),
06:15, Reeves N. (G),
07:30, Jones A. (G),
08:38, West R. (G),
12:13, Watson N. (G),
13:50, Freijah J. (Behind),
14:47, Ginnivan J. (Behind),
16:17, Day W. (G),
18:02, West R. (Behind),
19:27, Richards E. (Behind),
20:50, Lewis M. (Behind),
21:57, Chol M. (G),
23:36, Watson N. (G),
25:03, Chol M. (G),
3rd Quarter (12 - 31)
01:18, Ginnivan J. (Behind),
03:39, Chol M. (Behind),
06:21, Croft J. (G),
08:28, Bontempelli M. (G),
10:21, West R. (Behind),
12:01, Treloar A. (G),
14:45, (Behind Rushed),
15:46, Ginnivan J. (Behind),
17:34, Chol M. (G),
20:03, Croft J. (G),
23:07, Lewis W. (G),
26:55, Lewis M. (Behind),
29:54, Watson N. (Behind),
4th Quarter (5 - 19)
03:12, Meek L. (Behind),
03:50, Macdonald C. (Behind),
04:46, English T. (G),
07:13, Bontempelli M. (G),
14:15, Naughton A. (G),
17:47, Moore D. (Behind),
21:14, Treloar A. (Behind),
25:26, (Behind Rushed),
27:01, Weddle J. (Behind),
Preview
This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: ) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hawthorn won 4.
Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
Hawthorn may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Recently, Hawthorn has had a series of away games.
In this match, Hawthorn is seen as the favorite.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Hawthorn won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 1690:1609. (average 84.5:80.5).
Including home matches between the teams, Hawthorn won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 971:929. (average 80.9:77.4).
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