Match Info
AFL - Round 4Date: 6 April 2026, MondayLocation: Melbourne Cricket Ground (Melbourne)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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 Australia | AFL |
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Hawthorn Hawks |
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Geelong Cats |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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 |
1.78 |
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2.05 |
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1.6 |
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2.15 |
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 Watch |
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.69 ↑
(1.54) |
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2.1 ↓
(2.5) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 184.50
- The most likely Handicap: 1 (-4)
- The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Hawthorn Hawks
55.4% | Geelong Cats
44.6% |
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:Hawthorn Hawks has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hawthorn Hawks's form might have worsened.Geelong Cats has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Geelong Cats's recent form is better than expected.Hawthorn Hawks - Geelong Cats Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 94:90 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Quarter (21 - 13)
- 02:18, Wiltshire O. (Behind),
- 06:56, Gunston J. (G),
- 10:34, Ginnivan J. (G),
- 12:25, Martin J. (G),
- 14:10, Gunston J. (Behind),
- 17:04, (Behind Rushed),
- 20:11, Henry O. (G),
- 22:56, Chol M. (Behind),
- 24:33, Lewis M. (G),
- 2nd Quarter (26 - 43)
- 01:02, Neale S. (G),
- 02:57, Wiltshire O. (G),
- 04:46, Cameron J. (Behind),
- 05:52, Henry O. (G),
- 07:49, Chol M. (G),
- 10:59, Gunston J. (G),
- 12:40, Gunston J. (Behind),
- 15:18, Watson N. (G),
- 16:38, Bowes J. (G),
- 22:50, Dempsey O. (G),
- 25:15, Watson N. (G),
- 28:02, Reeves N. (Behind),
- 30:35, Bowes J. (G),
- 32:14, Neale S. (G),
- 3rd Quarter (22 - 9)
- 00:45, Moore D. (Behind),
- 03:18, Gunston J. (Behind),
- 08:16, Gunston J. (G),
- 10:02, Neale S. (G),
- 13:09, Blicavs M. (Behind),
- 14:53, Dalton J. (Behind),
- 18:17, Close B. (Behind),
- 19:15, Weddle J. (G),
- 24:27, Lewis M. (Behind),
- 26:47, Cameron J. (Behind),
- 28:25, Ginnivan J. (G),
- 4th Quarter (23 - 26)
- 02:09, Miers G. (Behind),
- 06:23, Cameron J. (G),
- 08:35, Henry O. (G),
- 10:26, Moore D. (Behind),
- 11:59, (Behind Rushed),
- 15:05, Blicavs M. (G),
- 16:47, Watson N. (G),
- 18:08, Chol M. (G),
- 20:53, Chol M. (Behind),
- 22:00, Chol M. (Behind),
- 24:58, (Behind Rushed),
- 27:29, Neale S. (G),
- 29:01, Lewis M. (G),
- 30:30, Gunston J. (Behind),
Preview
Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: ) and 11).In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hawthorn won 0.Hawthorn may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times. Hawthorn will hold a modest advantage in this match.In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Hawthorn won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 12 matches, and goals 1549:1815. (average 77.5:90.8).Including home matches between the teams, Hawthorn won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 592:648. (average 74:81).
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| AFL | | | 19.09.25 | Geelong Cats - Hawthorn Hawks | 115:85 | | 21.04.25 | Geelong Cats - Hawthorn Hawks | 86:79 | | 06.07.24 | Geelong Cats - Hawthorn Hawks | 110:59 | | 01.04.24 | Hawthorn Hawks - Geelong Cats | 70:106 | | 10.04.23 | Geelong Cats - Hawthorn Hawks | 127:45 | | 18.04.22 | Hawthorn Hawks - Geelong Cats | 92:80 | | 05.04.21 | Geelong Cats - Hawthorn Hawks | 69:64 |
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