Match Info
AFL - Round 23Date: 16 August 2026, SundayLocation: Melbourne Cricket Ground (Melbourne)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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 Australia | AFL TV, Fox Footy |
 Canada | fubo Sports Network |
 Germany | Magenta Sport, Sportdigital1+ |
 New-zealand | Sky Sport 6 |
 United-kingdom | HBO Max, TNT Sports 5 |
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Essendon Bombers |
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Sydney Swans |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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 |
12 |
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1.03 |
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 |
8 |
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1.02 |
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 Watch |
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
10 ↓
(12) |
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1.03
(1.03) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 184.50
- The most likely Handicap: 2 (-57)
- The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Essendon Bombers
9.3% | Sydney Swans
90.7% |
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:Essendon Bombers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)Sydney Swans has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)Essendon Bombers - Sydney Swans Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 64:121 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Quarter (18 - 55)
- 01:59, Curnow C. (G),
- 04:56, Curnow C. (G),
- 07:03, Prior J. (G),
- 08:20, Curnow C. (G),
- 10:24, Perkins A. (G),
- 15:12, Lloyd J. (G),
- 17:04, Warner C. (G),
- 20:07, Dattoli J. (G),
- 21:57, Warner C. (G),
- 24:03, McDonald L. (Behind),
- 27:22, Warner C. (G),
- 29:06, Wright P. (G),
- 32:44, McDonald L. (G),
- 2nd Quarter (28 - 15)
- 00:44, Dattoli J. (Behind),
- 02:55, Cootee B. (G),
- 05:34, Clarke A. (Behind),
- 08:03, Caddy N. (G),
- 09:53, Heeney I. (Behind),
- 11:07, Wright P. (G),
- 14:40, Curnow C. (Behind),
- 16:30, Unwin R. (G),
- 18:15, Heeney I. (G),
- 25:18, Caldwell J. (Behind),
- 27:46, Caddy N. (G),
- 29:43, Unwin R. (Behind),
- 30:21, Caddy N. (Behind),
- 3rd Quarter (15 - 17)
- 02:02, McDonald L. (Behind),
- 03:26, Farrow J. (Behind),
- 06:02, Sharp D. (Behind),
- 10:02, Day-Wicks A. (G),
- 13:12, Setterfield W. (G),
- 15:40, (Behind Rushed),
- 17:29, Serong J. (G),
- 20:30, McDonald L. (G),
- 21:44, Kako I. (Behind),
- 23:17, (Behind Rushed),
- 25:43, Green W. (Behind),
- 29:25, Heeney I. (Behind),
- 4th Quarter (15 - 25)
- 01:05, Heeney I. (G),
- 02:39, (Behind Rushed),
- 05:36, Caldwell J. (Behind),
- 07:48, (Behind Rushed),
- 08:35, Curnow C. (G),
- 10:03, Heeney I. (G),
- 15:34, Visentini V. (G),
- 17:44, Caddy N. (G),
- 24:20, Wright P. (Behind),
- 29:29, Lloyd J. (G),
Preview
This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 18 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: )).In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Essendon won 1.Recent form of Essendon has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).Sydney has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).Essendon may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days. In this match, Sydney is the clear favorite.In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Essendon won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 1491:1848. (average 74.6:92.4).Including home matches between the teams, Essendon won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 675:703. (average 84.4:87.9).
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| AFL | | | 02.08.25 | Sydney Swans - Essendon Bombers | 68:54 | | 10.05.25 | Essendon Bombers - Sydney Swans | 71:63 | | 16.08.24 | Essendon Bombers - Sydney Swans | 59:98 | | 23.03.24 | Sydney Swans - Essendon Bombers | 131:101 | | 29.07.23 | Essendon Bombers - Sydney Swans | 99:101 | | 01.07.22 | Essendon Bombers - Sydney Swans | 95:86 | | 14.05.22 | Sydney Swans - Essendon Bombers | 105:47 |
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