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Current Win Probability
St Kilda Saints 35.7%
Draw 2.8%
Sydney Swans 61.5%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
43.4%
56.6%
Our Initial ML Estimation
40.8%
59.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
St Kilda Saints has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that St Kilda Saints's form might have worsened.
Sydney Swans has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for St Kilda Saints than the current prediction. (+5.1%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for St Kilda Saints, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sydney Swans than the current prediction. (-2.3%)
St Kilda Saints - Sydney Swans Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 84:95
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Key Events of the Match
1st Quarter (35 - 26)
00:23, Hall M. (Behind),
00:50, Curnow C. (G),
02:04, (Behind Rushed),
03:00, (Behind Rushed),
07:18, Wilson D. (Behind),
08:56, Serong J. (G),
11:50, Wanganeen-Milera N. (G),
14:02, Ryan L. (G),
17:47, Hall M. (Behind),
18:40, Hall M. (G),
22:08, (Behind Rushed),
23:02, McDonald L. (G),
24:42, Roberts M. (Behind),
27:03, Garcia H. (G),
28:47, McDonald L. (G),
31:06, Wanganeen-Milera N. (G),
2nd Quarter (20 - 16)
03:42, Campbell B. (Behind),
06:15, Higgins J. (G),
07:44, (Behind Rushed),
08:15, Warner C. (G),
10:37, Lake C. (G),
12:53, Papley T. (Behind),
14:37, Lake C. (G),
16:22, Lloyd J. (Behind),
19:34, Papley T. (Behind),
21:50, Heeney I. (G),
25:55, Higgins J. (Behind),
3rd Quarter (19 - 20)
01:01, Heeney I. (Behind),
01:59, Warner C. (Behind),
03:40, Heeney I. (G),
06:16, Wanganeen-Milera N. (G),
09:36, Higgins J. (G),
13:07, Caminiti A. (G),
25:02, Hill B. (Behind),
26:27, McDonald L. (G),
31:20, Gulden E. (G),
4th Quarter (14 - 45)
03:43, McDonald L. (G),
05:21, Heeney I. (Behind),
07', Lloyd J. (Behind),
09:59, Hall M. (G),
19:43, (Behind Rushed),
21:44, Cootee B. (G),
24', Papley T. (G),
25:46, Marshall R. (Behind),
27:43, Cootee B. (G),
29:49, Curnow C. (G),
33:43, Warner C. (G),
38:20, Curnow C. (G),
39:26, Hall M. (G),
40:57, Marshall R. (Behind),
Preview
A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St Kilda won 2.
Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
Sydney could have a small edge in this match.
We predict that Sydney will win today's game, with odds of 1.46.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, St Kilda won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 1348:1855. (average 67.4:92.8).
Including home matches between the teams, St Kilda won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 813:1055. (average 67.8:87.9).
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