Match Info

AFL - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 3 September 2026, Thursday

Location: Optus Stadium (Perth)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL TV, Fox Footy
Canada	fubo Sports Network
Germany	Magenta Sport, Sportdigital1+
United-kingdom	HBO Max, TNT Sports 1


	Fremantle Dockers		Hawthorn Hawks

	1	X	2
	1.45		2.75
	1.42		2.65
				Watch
	1.44		2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↑ (1.42)	↓	2.72 ↑ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 161.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-14)

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fremantle Dockers
65.4%

Hawthorn Hawks
34.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

64.9%

0.9%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

91.2%

0.6%

24.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fremantle Dockers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Hawthorn Hawks has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fremantle Dockers than the current prediction. (+25.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fremantle Dockers, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hawthorn Hawks than the current prediction. (-10.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Hawthorn Hawks, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Fremantle Dockers - Hawthorn Hawks Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Fremantle (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB, 3Q - Fremantle (1.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +6.5 Points, OT - Fremantle (1.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Fremantle (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 88:74

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (9 - 28)
02:01, Jackson L. (G),
06:20, Watson N. (G),
08:57, D'Ambrosio M. (Behind),
10:44, Johnson M. (Behind),
12:21, Amiss J. (Behind),
13:51, (Behind Rushed),
14:35, Moore D. (Behind),
16:34, Moore D. (G),
19:35, Chol M. (G),
22:29, (Behind Rushed),
23:54, Gunston J. (G),
28:06, D'Ambrosio M. (Behind),
2nd Quarter (1 - 15)
04:57, Clark J. (Behind),
06:57, Gunston J. (G),
09:33, Day W. (Behind),
12:18, Moore D. (G),
14:49, (Behind Rushed),
19:11, Weddle J. (Behind),
3rd Quarter (21 - 21)
01:04, Amiss J. (G),
03:28, Ginnivan J. (G),
10:14, Watson N. (Behind),
11:55, Dudley I. (Behind),
14:53, Brayshaw A. (Behind),
16:46, Brayshaw A. (G),
18:41, Lewis M. (G),
21:54, Lewis M. (Behind),
23:59, Switkowski S. (G),
26:17, Watson N. (G),
27:43, Gunston J. (Behind),
28:35, Voss P. (Behind),
4th Quarter (9 - 8)
01:55, Switkowski S. (Behind),
03:17, Morrison H. (G),
06:13, Jackson L. (Behind),
10:47, Dudley I. (Behind),
16:21, Ginnivan J. (Behind),
19:16, Treacy J. (G),
22:00, Watson N. (Behind),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fremantle won 4.

Recent performances by Fremantle have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Hawthorn is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Fremantle might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fremantle won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 1462:1613. (average 73.1:80.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Fremantle won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 799:777. (average 79.9:77.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fremantle Dockers
AFL
21.08.26	Carlton Blues - Fremantle Dockers	119:82 ✺
14.08.26	Fremantle Dockers - Adelaide Crows	112:88 ✺
07.08.26	Melbourne Demons - Fremantle Dockers	113:109 ✺
31.07.26	Fremantle Dockers - Western Bulldogs	78:41 ✺
24.07.26	Fremantle Dockers - West Coast Eagles	112:42 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LWLWW
- Hawthorn Hawks
AFL
23.08.26	West Coast Eagles - Hawthorn Hawks	45:107 ✺
15.08.26	Hawthorn Hawks - Collingwood Magpies	92:92 ✺
07.08.26	Brisbane Lions - Hawthorn Hawks	125:58 ✺
31.07.26	Hawthorn Hawks - North Melbourne Kangaroos	99:83 ✺
25.07.26	Hawthorn Hawks - Essendon Bombers	132:39 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 WTLWW

Latest Head to Head

AFL
07.05.26	Fremantle Dockers - Hawthorn Hawks	88:73
12.07.25	Fremantle Dockers - Hawthorn Hawks	77:64
12.07.24	Hawthorn Hawks - Fremantle Dockers	87:74
25.08.23	Hawthorn Hawks - Fremantle Dockers	56:93
06.05.23	Fremantle Dockers - Hawthorn Hawks	117:48
11.06.22	Fremantle Dockers - Hawthorn Hawks	95:82
09.07.21	Hawthorn Hawks - Fremantle Dockers	46:108

Fremantle Dockers - Hawthorn Hawks: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide