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Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Friday, August 07, 2026)

Match Info

AFL - Round 22

Date: 7 August 2026, Friday

Location: The Gabba (Brisbane)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SupeSport ESPN 1
Australia	AFL TV, Fox Footy
Germany	Sportdigital1+
United-kingdom	HBO Max, TNT Sports 1


	Brisbane Lions		Hawthorn Hawks

	1	2
	1.8	2.02
	1.78	1.9
			Watch
	1.83	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↑ (1.5)	1.96 ↓ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 184.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brisbane Lions
52%

Hawthorn Hawks
48%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.9%

38.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.1%

37.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brisbane Lions has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Brisbane Lions's form might have worsened.

Hawthorn Hawks has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Hawthorn Hawks's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brisbane Lions than the current prediction. (+10.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Brisbane Lions, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hawthorn Hawks than the current prediction. (-10.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Hawthorn Hawks, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: Brisbane Lions will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 93:91

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (15 - 9)
00:53, Lohmann K. (Behind),
12:23, Gunston J. (G),
17:25, Morrison H. (Behind),
18:34, Morris L. (G),
19:44, (Behind Rushed),
22:46, Morris L. (G),
27:03, Bailey Z. (Behind),
27:48, (Behind Rushed),
29:15, Butler S. (Behind),
2nd Quarter (41 - 19)
00:55, Cameron C. (G),
02:42, Hipwood E. (G),
05:01, Morris L. (G),
09:19, Gunston J. (G),
12:01, (Behind Rushed),
14:00, Morris L. (G),
15:17, Lohmann K. (Behind),
17:37, D'Ambrosio M. (G),
19:12, Berry J. (Behind),
20:55, (Behind Rushed),
21:56, Mackenzie C. (Behind),
23:04, Lohmann K. (G),
25:13, Cameron C. (Behind),
27:37, Cameron C. (G),
32:47, Impey J. (G),
3rd Quarter (34 - 16)
02:16, (Behind Rushed),
03:21, Draper S. (G),
04:58, Moore D. (Behind),
05:48, Impey J. (Behind),
07:12, Watson N. (Behind),
08:24, Macdonald C. (G),
12:56, Cameron C. (Behind),
14:31, Hipwood E. (G),
16:54, Ashcroft L. (Behind),
18:46, Lohmann K. (G),
21:12, Lohmann K. (G),
22:53, Hipwood E. (Behind),
26:20, Moore D. (G),
27:40, Annable D. (G),
29:09, Allen O. (Behind),
4th Quarter (35 - 14)
04:35, Bailey Z. (Behind),
08:10, Ashcroft L. (Behind),
09:16, Rayner C. (Behind),
09:56, Lohmann K. (G),
12:05, Weddle J. (G),
13:51, Ashcroft W. (Behind),
14:53, Lohmann K. (G),
17:48, Newcombe J. (Behind),
19:20, Butler S. (Behind),
20:34, Lester R. (G),
23:43, Morris L. (Behind),
25:42, Rayner C. (G),
28:09, Cameron C. (G),
29:38, Gunston J. (G),

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brisbane won 2.

Now, both teams are in good form.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

We predict that Brisbane will win today's game, with odds of 1.7.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Brisbane won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 1485:1624. (average 78.2:85.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Brisbane won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 492:413. (average 82:68.8).

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Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		%%	Pts
3	Brisbane Lions	22	15	0	7	2340:1958	119.51	60
4	Hawthorn Hawks	22	14	2	6	2153:1836	117.27	60

Last Results with these Odds

Brisbane Lions - the odds 1.5 are the expected chance of winning is 61.93%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brisbane Lions
AFL
01.08.26	Carlton Blues - Brisbane Lions	154:78 ✺
25.07.26	Brisbane Lions - Port Adelaide Power	126:67 ✺
18.07.26	West Coast Eagles - Brisbane Lions	69:93 ✺
12.07.26	Brisbane Lions - Essendon Bombers	149:59 ✺
02.07.26	Geelong Cats - Brisbane Lions	101:123 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LWWWW
- Hawthorn Hawks
AFL
31.07.26	Hawthorn Hawks - North Melbourne Kangaroos	99:83 ✺
25.07.26	Hawthorn Hawks - Essendon Bombers	132:39 ✺
18.07.26	Richmond Tigers - Hawthorn Hawks	52:122 ✺
11.07.26	Carlton Blues - Hawthorn Hawks	39:103 ✺
03.07.26	Hawthorn Hawks - Melbourne Demons	90:125 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

AFL
24.08.25	Brisbane Lions - Hawthorn Hawks	89:79
24.05.25	Hawthorn Hawks - Brisbane Lions	60:93
25.05.24	Hawthorn Hawks - Brisbane Lions	100:75
09.06.23	Hawthorn Hawks - Brisbane Lions	98:73
22.05.22	Hawthorn Hawks - Brisbane Lions	117:112
01.08.21	Hawthorn Hawks - Brisbane Lions	92:80
22.03.20	Hawthorn Hawks - Brisbane Lions	90:62

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