Match Info

AFL - Round 24

Date: 21 August 2026, Friday

Location: Marvel Stadium (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL TV
United-kingdom	HBO Max, TNT Sports 1


	Carlton Blues		Fremantle Dockers

	1	2
	2.4	1.58
	2.2	1.58
			Watch
	2.23	1.64
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↓ (2.7)	1.6 ↑ (1.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 181.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-10)

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlton Blues
41.3%

Fremantle Dockers
58.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

35.3%

64.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.1%

61.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlton Blues has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Carlton Blues's performance.

Fremantle Dockers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fremantle Dockers might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlton Blues than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fremantle Dockers than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Carlton Blues - Fremantle Dockers Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Carlton will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 86:96

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (29 - 32)
02:44, Mcdonald O. (G),
04:38, Bolton S. (G),
08:01, McGovern M. (Behind),
10:33, Treacy J. (G),
12:08, Voss P. (G),
13:51, McGovern M. (Behind),
14:52, McKay H. (G),
16:38, Smith J. (Behind),
18:45, Young L. (Behind),
20:55, Treacy J. (Behind),
22:28, Ainsworth B. (G),
24:09, Brayshaw A. (G),
25:16, Evans F. (G),
27:16, Jackson L. (Behind),
28:46, Evans F. (G),
31:46, McKay H. (Behind),
2nd Quarter (26 - 12)
00:26, Walsh S. (Behind),
01:36, (Behind Rushed),
02:27, Kemp B. (G),
05:27, Walsh S. (G),
06:41, Brayshaw A. (Behind),
12:27, Cox M. (Behind),
13:35, Kemp B. (G),
15:38, Treacy J. (Behind),
17:14, Evans F. (G),
20:36, Young L. (Behind),
25:18, Jackson L. (Behind),
26:07, (Behind Rushed),
27:40, Frederick M. (G),
3rd Quarter (25 - 14)
03:18, Hollands O. (G),
04:59, Smith J. (G),
07:46, Voss P. (G),
16:28, Evans F. (G),
19:14, Treacy J. (G),
20:20, Cripps P. (G),
22:28, Murray T. (Behind),
25:19, Cox M. (Behind),
27:03, Ainsworth B. (Behind),
4th Quarter (39 - 24)
00:45, Jackson L. (G),
02:18, (Behind Rushed),
03:05, Lord C. (Behind),
05:49, Kemp B. (G),
07:36, McKay H. (G),
09:43, Evans F. (G),
12:51, Ainsworth B. (G),
13:57, Dudley I. (G),
17:08, Ainsworth B. (G),
20:50, Acres B. (G),
24:38, Treacy J. (G),
28:19, (Behind Rushed),
29:33, Murray T. (G),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Carlton won 3.

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Fremantle may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Fremantle will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Fremantle will win today's game, with odds of 1.61.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Carlton won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 1480:1591. (average 74:79.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Carlton won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 440:387. (average 88:77.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlton Blues
AFL
16.08.26	Western Bulldogs - Carlton Blues	82:82 ✺
09.08.26	St Kilda Saints - Carlton Blues	62:106 ✺
01.08.26	Carlton Blues - Brisbane Lions	154:78 ✺
24.07.26	Carlton Blues - Gold Coast Suns	110:97 ✺
18.07.26	Collingwood Magpies - Carlton Blues	90:69 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 TWWWL
- Fremantle Dockers
AFL
14.08.26	Fremantle Dockers - Adelaide Crows	112:88 ✺
07.08.26	Melbourne Demons - Fremantle Dockers	113:109 ✺
31.07.26	Fremantle Dockers - Western Bulldogs	78:41 ✺
24.07.26	Fremantle Dockers - West Coast Eagles	112:42 ✺
17.07.26	Port Adelaide Power - Fremantle Dockers	75:103 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

AFL
25.04.26	Fremantle Dockers - Carlton Blues	103:89
03.08.25	Fremantle Dockers - Carlton Blues	94:67
06.04.24	Fremantle Dockers - Carlton Blues	63:73
09.07.23	Fremantle Dockers - Carlton Blues	45:98
24.06.22	Carlton Blues - Fremantle Dockers	81:50
23.04.22	Fremantle Dockers - Carlton Blues	97:62
03.07.21	Fremantle Dockers - Carlton Blues	64:80

Carlton Blues - Fremantle Dockers: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide