The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Geelong Cats 64.9%
Collingwood Magpies 35.1%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
60.3%
39.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
56%
44%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Geelong Cats has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)
Collingwood Magpies has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Geelong Cats than the current prediction. (-8.9%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Geelong Cats that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Collingwood Magpies than the current prediction. (+8.9%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Collingwood Magpies could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Geelong Cats - Collingwood Magpies Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 95:82
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Key Events of the Match
1st Quarter (33 - 22)
01:37, Neale S. (Behind),
02:58, Neale S. (G),
04:43, Crisp J. (Behind),
06:15, McStay D. (G),
09:18, Martin J. (G),
11:14, McStay D. (Behind),
11:52, Daicos J. (G),
14:07, (Behind Rushed),
15:59, Henry O. (G),
19:26, Close B. (G),
21:19, Henry O. (Behind),
22:01, Henry O. (G),
23:42, Buller J. (G),
27:07, Schultz L. (Behind),
28:15, Daicos N. (Behind),
2nd Quarter (15 - 16)
00:17, (Behind Rushed),
01:23, (Behind Rushed),
05:28, Close B. (G),
08:28, McStay D. (G),
10:15, Elliott J. (Behind),
12:24, (Behind Rushed),
16:19, Buller J. (Behind),
19:44, Pendlebury S. (G),
21:11, Martin J. (G),
23:23, Martin J. (Behind),
26:13, (Behind Rushed),
3rd Quarter (28 - 6)
00:12, Dempsey O. (G),
01:25, De Goey J. (Behind),
03:03, (Behind Rushed),
07:02, Cameron J. (G),
08:04, Mannagh S. (G),
09:16, McCreery B. (Behind),
15:00, Anderson A. (Behind),
18:45, Henry O. (G),
20:52, Cameron J. (Behind),
21:29, Smith B. (Behind),
22:16, Elliott J. (Behind),
23:16, Stewart T. (Behind),
28:02, (Behind Rushed),
29:26, Long N. (Behind),
4th Quarter (46 - 24)
00:22, Mannagh S. (G),
02:02, Dangerfield P. (G),
04:19, (Behind Rushed),
08:07, Bowes J. (Behind),
09:43, Neale S. (G),
11:30, Schultz L. (G),
12:47, Anderson A. (G),
14:13, Mannagh S. (G),
16:33, Dangerfield P. (G),
19:50, Cameron J. (Behind),
21:10, Buller J. (G),
23:03, Henry O. (Behind),
28:44, McStay D. (G),
30:20, Henry O. (G),
32:29, Bowes J. (G),
Preview
One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: ) and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Geelong won 3.
Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
Collingwood may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Geelong might have a minor edge in this game.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Geelong won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 1648:1614. (average 82.4:80.7).
Including home matches between the teams, Geelong won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 630:695. (average 78.8:86.9).
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