Match Info

AFL - Round 10

Date: 15 May 2026, Friday

Location: Adelaide Oval (Adelaide)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL, Fox Footy


	Adelaide Crows		North Melbourne Kangaroos

	1	2
	1.47	2.7
	1.48	2.4
			Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↑ (1.33)	2.55 ↓ (3.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 176.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-13)

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Adelaide Crows
63.4%

North Melbourne Kangaroos
36.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

71.6%

28.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.3%

31.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Adelaide Crows has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Adelaide Crows's form might have worsened.

North Melbourne Kangaroos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting North Melbourne Kangaroos's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Adelaide Crows than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for North Melbourne Kangaroos than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Adelaide Crows - North Melbourne Kangaroos Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 95:82

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (26 - 22)
00:59, Larkey N. (G),
03:30, Stephens D. (Behind),
04:16, Curtis P. (G),
06:03, Stephens D. (Behind),
06:45, Simpkin J. (Behind),
08:22, Duursma Z. (Behind),
10:51, Peatling J. (G),
12:59, Taylor Z. (Behind),
14:58, Fogarty D. (G),
16:37, Soligo J. (G),
18:23, Wardlaw G. (G),
21:56, Rankine I. (G),
28:14, Rankine I. (Behind),
2nd Quarter (64 - 2)
01:32, Soligo J. (G),
02:46, Curtis P. (Behind),
03:16, Dawson J. (G),
08:00, Rankine I. (Behind),
08:25, Murray T. (G),
10:29, Pedlar L. (Behind),
11:47, Peatling J. (G),
13:35, Fogarty D. (G),
15:04, Rachele J. (G),
17:06, Nankervis L. (G),
20:33, Murray T. (Behind),
23:03, Darling J. (Behind),
24:25, McAndrew L. (G),
27:06, McAndrew L. (G),
29:43, Fogarty D. (Behind),
33:16, Rachele J. (G),
3rd Quarter (29 - 14)
00:57, Murray T. (Behind),
03:24, McKercher C. (Behind),
04:34, Cook B. (G),
06:23, Keays B. (Behind),
07:24, Pedlar L. (Behind),
08:03, Keays B. (G),
11:05, Spargo C. (G),
14:41, Cook B. (Behind),
17:10, Nankervis L. (G),
20:52, Soligo J. (Behind),
22:01, Keays B. (G),
25:00, (Behind Rushed),
26:07, Trembath C. (G),
4th Quarter (14 - 27)
02:00, Curtis P. (G),
07:09, Fogarty D. (Behind),
08:46, Curtis P. (G),
11:22, Rachele J. (G),
13:56, Stephens D. (Behind),
17:05, Duursma Z. (Behind),
18:43, Murray T. (G),
20:08, Sheezel H. (Behind),
25:53, Darling J. (G),
28:07, O'Sullivan F. (G),
31:12, Curtin D. (Behind),

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: ) and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Adelaide won 5.

Adelaide is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

North Melbourne has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Adelaide may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Adelaide might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Adelaide will win today's game, with odds of 1.49.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Adelaide won 15 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 2059:1637. (average 103:81.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Adelaide won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1198:787. (average 108.9:71.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Adelaide Crows
AFL
10.05.26	Richmond Tigers - Adelaide Crows	61:98 ✺
01.05.26	Adelaide Crows - Port Adelaide Power	76:75 ✺
26.04.26	Brisbane Lions - Adelaide Crows	127:75 ✺
18.04.26	Adelaide Crows - St Kilda Saints	103:102 ✺
09.04.26	Adelaide Crows - Carlton Blues	114:86 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWLWW
- North Melbourne Kangaroos
AFL
08.05.26	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Sydney Swans	97:105 ✺
02.05.26	Geelong Cats - North Melbourne Kangaroos	135:86 ✺
26.04.26	Greater Western Sydney Giants - North Melbourne Kangaroos	105:98 ✺
18.04.26	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Richmond Tigers	130:55 ✺
10.04.26	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Brisbane Lions	66:92 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

AFL
22.08.25	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Adelaide Crows	100:113
30.03.25	Adelaide Crows - North Melbourne Kangaroos	114:78
26.04.24	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Adelaide Crows	81:138
30.06.23	Adelaide Crows - North Melbourne Kangaroos	138:72
13.08.22	Adelaide Crows - North Melbourne Kangaroos	103:74
25.06.22	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Adelaide Crows	58:115
22.08.21	Adelaide Crows - North Melbourne Kangaroos	98:54

Adelaide Crows - North Melbourne Kangaroos: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide