Match Info

AFL - Round 17

Date: 3 July 2025, Thursday

Location: Marvel Stadium (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL, Fox Footy
New-zealand	Sky Sport 3
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 1


	North Melbourne Kangaroos		Western Bulldogs

	1	2
	13	1.04
	6.6	1.05
			Watch
	9	1.05
	9	1.05
	6.6	1.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.84 ↑ (4.84)	1.05 ↓ (1.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 180.00

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-48)

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

North Melbourne Kangaroos
10.6%

Western Bulldogs
89.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

19.8%

80.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

North Melbourne Kangaroos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that North Melbourne Kangaroos's form might have worsened.

Western Bulldogs has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Western Bulldogs's recent form is better than expected.

North Melbourne Kangaroos - Western Bulldogs Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +70.5 Points, OT - North Melbourne (1.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. North Melbourne (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 66:114

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (32 - 26)
00:57, Vandermeer L. (G),
02:48, English T. (G),
05:19, Sheezel H. (Behind),
07:02, Larkey N. (G),
11:02, Larkey N. (G),
12:18, Larkey N. (G),
14:27, Darcy S. (Behind),
17:29, Liberatore T. (G),
22:45, English T. (G),
26:43, Curtis P. (G),
28:39, Bontempelli M. (Behind),
30:55, Larkey N. (G),
33:48, Larkey N. (Behind),
2nd Quarter (19 - 38)
01:24, Naughton A. (G),
03:45, Sheezel H. (G),
09:42, Dale B. (G),
11:28, Larkey N. (G),
14:45, Naughton A. (G),
19:09, Harvey C. (Behind),
21:08, Naughton A. (G),
24:06, Zurhaar C. (G),
25:27, Richards E. (Behind),
28:52, Naughton A. (Behind),
30:15, Bontempelli M. (G),
31:54, Naughton A. (G),
3rd Quarter (27 - 36)
02:32, Bramble L. (Behind),
05:17, Johannisen J. (Behind),
06:00, Harvey C. (G),
09:22, Darcy S. (G),
11:06, Maley F. (G),
13:31, (Behind Rushed),
15:00, Hansen R. (G),
18:03, Liberatore T. (G),
19:15, (Behind Rushed),
20:41, Richards E. (Behind),
21:23, Bontempelli M. (G),
23:12, (Behind Rushed),
24:01, Dale B. (G),
25:24, (Behind Rushed),
27:40, English T. (Behind),
30:09, Naughton A. (G),
31:55, Zurhaar C. (G),
34:04, Zurhaar C. (Behind),
4th Quarter (7 - 34)
01:50, (Behind Rushed),
03:41, Darcy S. (G),
05:22, Vandermeer L. (Behind),
09:58, Freijah J. (G),
12:55, Darcy S. (Behind),
14:52, Darcy S. (G),
18:23, McKercher C. (G),
21:21, Darcy S. (G),
25:00, West R. (G),
27:58, Naughton A. (Behind),
30:23, Stephens D. (Behind),

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 16 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, North Melbourne won 0.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Western is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, North Melbourne won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 1496:1948. (average 74.8:97.4).

Including home matches between the teams, North Melbourne won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 670:871. (average 74.4:96.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- North Melbourne Kangaroos
AFL
28.06.25	Hawthorn Hawks - North Melbourne Kangaroos	150:65 ✺
20.06.25	Carlton Blues - North Melbourne Kangaroos	73:84 ✺
14.06.25	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Fremantle Dockers	67:73 ✺
08.06.25	North Melbourne Kangaroos - West Coast Eagles	62:52 ✺
24.05.25	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Collingwood Magpies	63:108 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 LWLWL
- Western Bulldogs
AFL
27.06.25	Sydney Swans - Western Bulldogs	96:105 ✺
22.06.25	Western Bulldogs - Richmond Tigers	135:56 ✺
12.06.25	St Kilda Saints - Western Bulldogs	60:132 ✺
05.06.25	Western Bulldogs - Hawthorn Hawks	59:81 ✺
22.05.25	Geelong Cats - Western Bulldogs	127:113 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

AFL
15.03.25	Western Bulldogs - North Melbourne Kangaroos	113:97
17.08.24	Western Bulldogs - North Melbourne Kangaroos	138:42
28.06.24	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Western Bulldogs	60:77
18.06.23	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Western Bulldogs	84:105
AAMI Community Series
03.03.23	Western Bulldogs - North Melbourne Kangaroos	143:85
AFL
15.04.22	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Western Bulldogs	71:139
04.07.21	Western Bulldogs - North Melbourne Kangaroos	108:79

North Melbourne Kangaroos - Western Bulldogs: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide