Match Info

AFL Women - Round 11

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Mars Stadium (Ballarat)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL, Fox Footy
United-kingdom	Discovery+


	Western Bulldogs		Geelong Cats

	1	2
	1.91	1.91
	1.85	1.85
			Watch
	1.95	1.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↓ (2.1)	1.86 ↑ (1.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 76.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Western Bulldogs
49.5%

Geelong Cats
50.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

45.5%

54.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.4%

53.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Western Bulldogs has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Geelong Cats has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Western Bulldogs than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Geelong Cats than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Western Bulldogs - Geelong Cats Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Western (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Western Bulldogs will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 39:39

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (8 - 18)
2nd Quarter (2 - 7)
3rd Quarter (6 - 6)
4th Quarter (10 - 6)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Western won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Geelong may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Western won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 139:142. (average 23.2:23.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Western won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 98:69. (average 32.7:23).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Western Bulldogs Women
AFL Women
19.10.25	Gold Coast Suns - Western Bulldogs	6:72 ✺
10.10.25	Western Bulldogs - Essendon Bombers	67:10 ✺
04.10.25	Port Adelaide Power - Western Bulldogs	54:35 ✺
26.09.25	Western Bulldogs - Collingwood Magpies	65:8 ✺
21.09.25	Western Bulldogs - Brisbane Lions	22:47 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WWLWL
- Geelong Cats Women
AFL Women
17.10.25	West Coast Eagles - Geelong Cats	50:19 ✺
11.10.25	Geelong Cats - Greater Western Sydney Giants	72:45 ✺
05.10.25	Geelong Cats - Carlton Blues	37:55 ✺
25.09.25	Geelong Cats - Hawthorn Hawks	35:42 ✺
19.09.25	Port Adelaide Power - Geelong Cats	40:45 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

AFL Women
02.09.23	Geelong Cats - Western Bulldogs	65:17
01.10.22	Western Bulldogs - Geelong Cats	36:37
18.02.22	Western Bulldogs - Geelong Cats	28:16
15.01.22	Geelong Cats - Western Bulldogs	Canceled
12.02.21	Geelong Cats - Western Bulldogs	8:24
09.02.19	Western Bulldogs - Geelong Cats	34:16

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