Match Info

NBL - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 17 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: Adelaide Entertainment Centre (Adelaide)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	ESPN, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports


	Adelaide 36ers		South East Melbourne Phoenix

	1	2
	1.9	1.83
	2	1.85
	2.09	1.71	Watch
	1.9	1.8
	2.06	1.79	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↑ (1.8)	1.8 ↓ (2.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 194.00

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Adelaide 36ers
47.4%

South East Melbourne Phoenix
52.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.1%

46.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54%

46%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Adelaide 36ers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Adelaide 36ers's form might have worsened.

South East Melbourne Phoenix has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting South East Melbourne Phoenix's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Adelaide 36ers than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Adelaide 36ers, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for South East Melbourne Phoenix than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for South East Melbourne Phoenix, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Adelaide 36ers - South East Melbourne Phoenix Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Adelaide will win (votes: 1 - 50%). South East Melbourne will win (votes: 1 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Adelaide (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 96:98

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cameron F.	0. Brown J.
45. Cheatham Z.	30. Foxwell O.
11. Cotton B. (C)	1. Hunter J.
8. Humphries I.	25. Iwundu W.
34. Vasiljevic D.	20. Sobey N. (C)
Substitutes
42. Brogan C.	7. Aliir A.
17. Harris M.	21. Clark I.
12. Jenkins J.	11. Foster D.
0. Kenyon M.	5. Glover A.
39. Manyang D.	33. Lewis M.
31. Rakocevic N.	8. Mitchell D.
22. Rasmussen K.	13. Rosendale L.
2. White I.
Coaches
. Wells M.	. King J.

Preview

Series tied 1-1. Third leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Adelaide won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

South East Melbourne may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Adelaide won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 1789:1843. (average 89.5:92.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Adelaide won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 876:905. (average 87.6:90.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	L		PCT
8	South East Melbourne	6	2	4	552:553	0.333
9	Adelaide	6	2	4	532:560	0.333

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Adelaide 36ers
Australian NBL
14.03.26	South East Melbourne Phoenix - Adelaide 36ers	101:92 ✺
10.03.26	Adelaide 36ers - South East Melbourne Phoenix	104:97 ✺
22.02.26	Adelaide 36ers - New Zealand Breakers	107:111 ✺
20.02.26	Perth Wildcats - Adelaide 36ers	86:74 ✺
14.02.26	Adelaide 36ers - New Zealand Breakers	92:89 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LWLLW
- South East Melbourne Phoenix
Australian NBL
14.03.26	South East Melbourne Phoenix - Adelaide 36ers	101:92 ✺
10.03.26	Adelaide 36ers - South East Melbourne Phoenix	104:97 ✺
04.03.26	South East Melbourne Phoenix - Perth Wildcats	111:94 ✺
19.02.26	Melbourne United - South East Melbourne Phoenix	95:91 ✺
14.02.26	South East Melbourne Phoenix - Tasmania JackJumpers	120:104 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Australian NBL
14.03.26	South East Melbourne Phoenix - Adelaide 36ers	101:92
10.03.26	Adelaide 36ers - South East Melbourne Phoenix	104:97
31.01.26	Adelaide 36ers - South East Melbourne Phoenix	77:97
17.01.26	Adelaide 36ers - South East Melbourne Phoenix	89:108
22.11.25	South East Melbourne Phoenix - Adelaide 36ers	81:94
16.10.25	Adelaide 36ers - South East Melbourne Phoenix	88:71
15.02.25	South East Melbourne Phoenix - Adelaide 36ers	85:75

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